Why this Tassie filly looks poised to stamp herself as an All-Star in the Guineas
The Melbourne Autumn carnival returns to Flemington this weekend after an action-packed Blue Diamond day at Caulfield last Saturday.
The track played on-pace and on the inside with the rail in the true (which it is again here) two weeks ago on Lightning Stakes day. With extremely hot weather predicted again, we see no reason for the track to play any different.
This perceived pattern should suit our selection Mystic Journey who draws barrier 1. She’s hard in the market at $4.50* along with Amphitrite at $4.20*. These two are clearly ahead of third-elect Hawkshot at $8*, but we believe the bookies may have the prices the wrong way around and here’s why:
• Long term goal: Unlike plenty of her competitors who are looking towards the derby, the Oaks or the All-Star mile, Mystic Journey thrives at 1600m and has been set for this race for some time. She also likely must win to make the All-Star mile field.
• Perfect set-up: She comes here third-up after two arrogant wins at 1100 then 1400m. That should provide her with a perfect fitness base to peak here, again in contrast to key rival Amphitrite who lacks a run on Mystic Journey.
• Barrier 1 no issue: Due to extreme heat and hence lack of natural irrigation we don’t expect the rail to chop out too much later in the day. Couple that with a lack of distinct early speed in the race and she maps well.
• Superior form lines: Although Mystic Journey and Amphitrite have never met, if you take a line through Fundamentalist, Mystic Journey comes out on top. Mystic Journey walked by that galloper by 2.25L off a torrid run in transit, whereas Amphitrite only put a length on her on two occasions.
Despite the reasons above the filly still remains on the second line of betting at $4.50*. If you’re eligible for the offers below you could profit handsomely. For example, a winning $150 on Mystic Journey at $4.50* could see you collecting $525 should she salute.
*Prices correct at time of posting and subject to fluctuation.