2019 Adelaide Cup betting preview

A capacity field lines up for this year’s Adelaide Cup with the visitors once again heading up the betting with Victorian Bondeiger coming up a $3.70* early favourite. How will he fair going back from an inside draw?

Jack Zuber
 | 
Sat, 9 Mar, 12:00 AM

Race Shape:

The rail moves out slightly into the +2m position from the 1200m to the winning post. The inside held up fairly well on Saturday’s meeting. However, on the 15th race in 3 days at the track, we’re expecting an advantage for those horses with momentum swinging out wider to access lanes 14+.   

Fabrizio looks your leader at a moderate early to mid-race gallop. Aloft is the one who could force the issue having won over the distance in a former life. Naval Warfare and Bon Equus get nice runs behind this pair. Franked can be handy enough with Henry The Dolphin and Azurite searching for positions out wide. Bondeiger won’t be any further forward that the third-last pair on the rails with Lamborghini and Eastender to his outside getting better runs with cover.

 

The Key Runners:

1. *SCRATCHED* Eastender (18) - $6*

J: C. Newitt (58kg) T: B. Campbell.

The Tasmanian galloper is searching for his fifth straight win after winning the Hobart and Launceston cups at his latest. He got the charmed run through on this inside on both occasions but maps to get use of the best ground again. His Hobart Cup win was the most impressive. After taking a bath in betting: $3.70-$5.50, he sustained a long run (under riding 800m+ out) to get up along the inside to beat Lamborghini by 1.5 lengths. The inside ground at Hobart wasn’t the best (never is) but Newitt did manage to get far enough off the fence in the straight to access some decent lanes. Two 2400m runs into 3200m fifth-up looks a good a set-up as anything here. $6 a slight bit of value only going up 1kg.

 

2. Fabrizio (10) - $12*

J: S. Baster (58kg) T: G. Waterhouse & A. Bott.

Comes here essentially ninth-up with plenty of miles in the legs. After an excellently judged front-running ride from Baster – who sticks here with 1kg less – he stuck on for second in the Launceston Cup last-start. Although he’s been a very consistent conveyance over the 2400m distance range, his peak performances have been over 1600-1800m, including starting favourite in the 2016 Doncaster. He should lead here and set his own tempo unless Aloft decides to make it a true test. Priced right, leading all-the-way over 3200m a big ask. 

 

3. Bondeiger (2) - $3.80F*

J: J. Winks (54kg) T: C. Maher.

The favourite presents here after winning a main lead-up in the Lord Reims Stakes over 2600m at the track. After receiving a nice run from the back of the field he won by 1.5L with a touch of arrogance, running right through the line under hands and heels. Dropping 3kg from that effort is certainly enough weight to take notice. Prior to that, he comes through the same Moonee Valley 2500m race of many of his rivals. Got another nice run in transit there behind Naval Warfare and went to the line in very similar fractions to both that galloper and Fabrizio with only 0.4L separating the 4 of them – tying him in with Lamborghini and Eastender. He doesn’t look to get such a charmed run from barrier 2 here behind some potential roadblocks. Although he’s raced as through 3200m will suit, he looks more of a $5-chance.  

4. Naval Warfare (1) - $6*

J: C. Brown (54kg) T: C. Waller.

Should make his own luck from an on-speed position with enough fitness in his legs to try the 3200m. Had finished right alongside Fabrizio in the Australia Day Cup and Tourney Night Cup at the Valley prior to chasing home Schabau last-start in the Roy Higgins. Schabau is currently right in the betting for a Melbourne Cup, so being beaten 3.75L isn’t a bad form reference. Walker to Brown a natural jockey change with a 4kg weight relief seeing him meet Fabrizio on the same differential as the Valley. Having drawn the inside we believe $6 is too close to the mark to suggest a bet, but don’t leave him out of any exotics.   

 

5. Aloft (8) - $41*

J: J. Holder (53kg) T: E. Musgrove.

He’s one of only 4 runners to have seen the 3200m before and the only one to have won at the distance in flat racing. Although that win was back in 2015, it is still his best performance to date in a quality Listed race at Ascot and has some baring for such a niche distance in Australia. After winning last year’s Roy Higgins he was hard in the market for the Sydney Cup, but failed to finish the race as being used as a pace-maker for the Williams camp took its toll. Since joining the Musgrove stable his form has been fair, coming through the Roy Higgins again this year he held the lead until around 2 furlongs out to be beaten around 8 lengths. Drops 4kgs off that runs and maintains a good jockey in Holder. Could be a knockout at big odds.

6. Lamborghini (16) - $9.50*

J: M. Dee (53kg) T: P. Payne.

Beaten home by Eastender in his last two (by 1 and 1.5 lengths). Receives a 2kg swing on that galloper here. They map to once again receive similar runs, looking to get out into the good going first. Eighth-up here for the under-rated P Payne, his platform is solid enough to attempt 3200m. He races is a relaxed enough fashion to get the extra ground and attacks the line time and time again. The price differential between him and Eastender is too big to ignore and we have to be with him at $9.50. 

 

16. Surprise Baby (4) - $12*

J: D. Holland (53kg) T: P. Preusker.

The lightly-raced 4yo finds 3200m very early in his career at only having his sixth-start still in his first campaign. By a Melbourne Cup winner in Shocking, he’s bred to get the trip, but this early? The form around his in very solid. Having sustained a long run to beat the talented Wetakemanhattan at the Valley before running Shabau to 1.55L in BM84 grade over 2000m at Flemington. He’s already been backed in from $15, which is particularly scary from this stable. Talented but just can’t have him off this set-up. 

 

17. Franked (7) - $21*

J: J. Kah (53kg) T: M. Hickmott.

The former French galloper impressed first-up on Australian shores at Gawler, winning by almost 3L over 2118m. However, he’s since gone downhill but maintained a very strong SP profile. This was until he finally showed his talent last start. Despite still over racing he dismantled a BM82 field at the track by 4L. He was strong through the line but still got lost once he broke clear, laying out up the straight. There’s a strong feeling this has been the grand final for this galloper for some time. Trained by multiple Melbourne Cup winning trainer and ridden by an in-form Jamie Kah (big jockey change). Mapping well behind the speed, he’s certainly one to consider for exotics.

 

Selections:

  1. Lamborghini ($9.50*).
  2. Eastender ($6*).
  3. Naval Warfare ($6*).
  4. Aloft ($41*).

 

Betting Plan:

Playing Lamborghini and Eastender with Aloft as the knockout. Hoping Bondeiger gets lost at a quote too short to jump into:

  • 45% of the race bank on Lamborghini at $9.50*.
  • *SCRATCHED* 45% of the race bank on Eastender at $6*.
  • 10% of the race bank on Aloft at $41*.

 

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