2019 Vinery Stud Stakes Betting Preview
Dominant Phar Lap winner Verry Elleegant comes up a short $2.60* favourite in early betting. Can the noted puller settle with the nose roll off and justify her early support or will some proven Group 1 performers come to the floor?
The rail moves out into the +6m position from the 3m last week. With likely Thursday (heavy at 20-40mm), Friday and Saturday it should be yet another heavy surface. It was an advantage to be up on speed/saving ground and peeling out into the middle of the track last week and we’re expecting a very similar pattern again here.
Tempo looks very slow. Are Greysful Glamour and Autumn forced to take it up? Besides those two Nakeeta Jane will show speed from her inside draw with the likes of Aristia and Seabrook coming across (more conservative with the blinkers off). Quafila and *SCRATCHED* El Dorado Dreaming will show some speed. Verry Elleegant has the speed to be in front of plenty here but we’re doubtful Waller will want a positive ride with the Oaks in mind despite an inside draw. Pohutukawa will be behind them with the rest settling at the rear.
The Key Runners:
1. Nakeeta Jane (3) - $6.50*
J: J. Parr (56kg) T: M. Newnham.
Was a narrow but brilliant winner of both the Light Fingers and Surround Stakes early this preparation. She then did a ton of work carting the field up to a run-away Miss Fabulass in the Randwick Guineas and was just grinding late on the quick back-up. The three weeks between runs looks ideal in helping her get over that gallant effort. She maps well here from an inside draw to get a conservative run just behind the speed. On both breeding and conformation, 2000m seems like it will suit, and she could jump out of the ground in soft going being by So You Think. Given she started $3.70 in the Guineas when The Autumn Sun was $2 it seems absurd she’s $6.50 compared to $2.60 for Verry Elleegant here. Betting up.
2. *SCRATCHED* El Dorado Dreaming (4) - $10*
J: B. Avdulla (56kg) T: K. Lees
The ever-consistent filly has kept that record going this time in running bold races in both the Surround and Coolmore Classic at big odds. She hit the line with force in the Surround when clear and only finished 0.3L behind Nakeeta Jane. On the back of that run, she somehow started $21 in the Coolmore and sliced up the inside to hit the front in the straight. She looked the winner until every gap possible opened up for Dixie Blossoms and she went straight by. The further 1.3L to third is a positive. She’s proven on heavy ground, over 2000m and should get a nice run from 4 with every opportunity to get to the outside. Another one at good odds early.
3. Verry Elleegant (5) - $2.60F*
J: J. McDonald (56kg) T: C. Waller
Was finally let roll somewhat in the Phar Lap and she absolutely brained them. Still throwing her head about somewhat in-run (yet the nose roll comes off here?) as she was bottled up on the fence, she sliced up the inside and put paid to them within a few strides. With that event leisurely run over 1500m at Group 2 level, we question whether such a platform warrants her being $2.60* the next start over 2000m with bigger plans in mind against some genuine Group 1 competitors. No doubt she should be hard in the market as she loves the wet and could be given clear air mid-field but the shortest we can get her is around $3.80.
4. Aristia (10) - $14*
J: D. Lane (56kg) T: M. Ellerton & S. Zhara
The wakeful and VRC Oaks winner of the Spring comes here third-up after placing twice this preparation. She another who jumps from the 1500 to 2000m third-up. Given the stable had her peaking 5th-6th-up last time in we’re expecting to still see a bit of improvement left in her on Saturday. In saying this she’ll be grinding away at the finish after sliding across from an outside barrier, just may lack the brilliance of some others. Wet no issue but she’ll struggle to make up the 5.4L on Verry Elleegant from the Phar Lap. Once for the exotics.
8. Pohutukawa (9) - $6.50*
J: K. McEvoy (56kg) T: J. Cummings
Was completely luckless both 1st-up in the Light Fingers then 2nd-up in the Surround, she was hopelessly held-up in the Light Fingers only to savage the line in the fastest late sectionals then didn’t get out at any stage in the Surround Stakes. She was subject to plenty of betting in the Surround ($6.50-$4.50) and again last-start in the Kembla Classic ($2.20-$1.60). Contrary to her first two runs she saw daylight at Kembla and streeted them. From 9 she’ll likely be ridden conservatively to run out the 2000m. Although she loves the going, with reservations over whether she can show the same brilliant sprint over 2000m we’re betting around her at skinny odds.
10. Frankely Awesome (12) - $19*
J: J. Collett (56kg) T: K. Lees
Relished the switch to an outside barrier, softer ground, a better tempo and a step up in distance in the Kembla Classic and ran a huge race at $41. Kept coming valiantly from out wide to run 2nd by 1.3L on the line. He looked to be holding Scarlet Dream well on and through the line. Well enough to suggest he could do so here over 2000m. She should enjoy the race shape here and could add some value into exotics at a nice price relative to Scarlet Dream.
- Nakeeta Jane ($6.50*)
- *SCRATCHED* El Dorado Dreaming ($10*)
- Verry Elleegant ($2.60F*)
- Aristia ($14*)
- 70% of the race bank on Nakeeta Jane at $6.50* (surely she shortens).
- 30% of the race bank on *SCRATCHED* El Dorado Dreaming at $10*.