You simply can’t tip against Brisbane here. St George were ordinary further up the QLD coast last week against the Cowboys. The big Rev V have copped a fair bit of criticism this week and should lift, it is hard to see them troubling the Broncos who had a good spar with the Titans last round. The line is beefy like myself at 14.5 ($1.91 Sportbet), but if the Broncos play football they will win easily and cover that, so get on the Broncos -14.5 start. Corey Oates is a good young footballer and back him to score first ($8 William Hill) from the relentless early Brisbane pressure.
This is always a game about passion, rivalry and pure dislike for each other. I am going to stick with the Roosters against the Bunnies. Whilst they have lost 5 in a row and haven’t looked that sharp this season, I haven’t been impressed with Souths either. The Rabbitohs were ordinary in the last 60 minutes against Manly, if it wasn’t for Sam Burgess they could well have been beaten. The Roosters are a very good price straight out ($2.90 UNIBET) in what will be a tough, tight battle and I reckon they are a really good bet at the line, getting 6.5 start ($1.91). The Roosters are slowly improving and the more you lose, the closer you are getting to a win so I am siding with the Chooks at the line, with a speccy straight out. To round out a Roosters trifecta, side with Blake Ferguson to be 1st Try Scorer ($18 Sportsbet) in what will be good old local derby.
Canberra are a funny side. The points they have dropped this year are against the lesser sides yet really lift against the good sides as they showed when completely outplaying the Bulldogs on Monday night. The short turnaround won’t help the Raiders so I have to tip Parra here to bounce back after losing to the mighty chocolate soldiers last week (we were all on at the line!). Nathan Peats is back for the Eels which is a massive plus but being very wary of this Canberra side, let’s look for some value. I am very keen on Semi Radradra to be first try scorer ($6.75 Luxbet). He has been in a bit of a drought and am tipping him to break that this week against Canberra.
WARRIORS vs MANLY (5.30pm Saturday)
You always have to be wary of tipping the Warriors - even at home - but they are against a Manly side that has failed to live up to expectations this season. The Kiwi team got out of jail thanks to Roger Tuivasa-Scheck last week against the Roosters. Manly were blown off the park early by Souths before staging somewhat of a comeback after the Bunnies put the cue in the rack for the last 60. I am going to go Manly with the +6.5 start ($1.94 Luxbet), they have a good record against the Warriors and the Eagles at the +6.5 line looks big enough to be a bet. A rising star of the future in Tom Trbojevic looks a good bet to be first try scorer ($12 Bet365). He’s a big tall thing, he’s fast and he’s a footballer so he has a bit going for him and he will have a bit going for us if he dots down first.
This shapes as a great match at the foot of the mountains. Both teams coming off wins, I believe Penrith will start fast against the Cowboys but fear that the Cowboys will be too strong at the business end of proceedings. I am very keen on Penrith to score the first try ($2.05 Luxbet). With this advantage, I expect them to be in front at half-time ($2.33 UNIBET). The Panthers will definitely give a yelp here however the Cowboys are the masters of composure at the back end of their games where they often grind out their wins. I hate tipping against the panthers but the best bet here looks to play the Penrith / Cowboys Half-Time / Full-Time double at tasty odds ($8.65 Luxbet).
The Gold Coast have been the surprise packets of the competition so far and Cronulla are in for a torrid game this Sunday at Shark Park. I hate it when the men from the Shire play boring football. The best thing is they haven’t been boring Cronulla, they have been playing proper football, it is entertaining and effective. The value in the game is definitely the old warrior Luke Lewis to be first try scorer ($17 Bet365). He has an uncanny knack of being first to score and has done so twice this season already. I tipped Maloney last week at big odds and whilst he didn’t score first, he got across the paint during the match so we will go with a two pronged shark attack for first try: Lewis and Maloney ($23 Sportsbet). Sharks 1-12 for the purists as well ($3.15 Luxbet).
I expected the Tigers to be shorter than the $1.87 (UNIBET) and I reckon that’s a good price. The Tigers have plenty of flair and despite being in a 3 game rut, the rut isn’t as deep as the Knights, whom can’t buy a win at the moment. They performed well against the Storm and covered the big line for us easily. However, with Sironen back for the Tigers, combining with their exciting halves and the try scoring machine Tedesco, they will be too strong.
The Bulldogs were lifeless at Belmore against the Raiders on Monday after bulldozing the Bunnies at their previous start. I expect them to come out humming against a Melbourne Storm outfit whom haven’t impressed me this year. They were poor against the Sharks and battled last week against the Knights so they appear ripe for the picking by a Bulldogs outfit itching to bounce back. I am exceptionally confident the Bulldogs will score first ($2.13 Sportsbet) and roll that into winning the first half ($2.25 UNIBET). I expect this to continue in the second half to chalk up the half-time / full-time double for the Dogs ($3.40 Bet365).