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BIG MARN'S ROUND 3 MULTI:
LEG – 1: BRISBANE BRONCOS straight out
LEG – 2: TITANS + 5.5
LEG – 3: TOTAL POINTS = OVERS (Knights/Bunnies)
LEG – 4: MANLY + 11.5
A belter of a game is in store south of the border tonight. The Storm will be welcoming back legend Billy Slater, who has spent more time on the footy show with me recently, than on the footy paddock in the last 12 months. He is a huge in for the Storm. Brisbane had their hearts broken last week and will be dead keen to make amends. The Broncos toppled the Storm in Melbourne last year and at the odds, I am prepared to tip them again to upset the applecart. With lads like Ben Hunt and Milford playing like we know they can, potency out wide and still loads of go-forward up front despite the loss of Corey Parker. BRONCOS on top for mine.
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There won’t be any excessive margin by any stretch, so even greater value can be found in the Broncos to win 1-12. The odds currently sit around $3.80. That’s massive because if the Broncs are going to do it, it is going to be within two converted tries.
Given it is the big return of the mercurial son of the Storm in BILLY SLATER, let’s roll with his pretty face to be the First Try Scorer at around the $14 mark. This will be a brilliant game to kick off the week so make sure you tune in, and get those flutters going on the side.
Outright Match Winner: BRISBANE BRONCOS
Margin Betting: BRONCOS 1-12
First Try Scorer: BILLY SLATER
The Dogs take this as a home game to Dunedin, NZ. Not too sure why they think Dunedin is more homely than Belmore, but that’s what the family club have done, gifted their opposition some more support! Looking at both these teams, the Dogs pushed the Storm all the way a few weeks ago, who then came and gave the Warriors a touch up last week. The Dogs then rattled the Roosters with an almighty shake away and come into this game 0-2 but playing far better than that. The Warriors sole competition points come from beating Newcastle in NZ – well I doubt there isn’t an NRL coach who expects two points from such matches this season. It’s hardly inspiring. Added to that – it is the Warriors. I have one rule – give the Warriors a wide berth when favourites in matches.
There has been a landslide of money for the Bulldogs this week, who were as high as $2.60 early on, and are as low as $2.05 in some places. It’s been a go. I am with the momentum and an on the Bulldogs. I cannot see it as a blow out here, you would expect the Warriors to give them some sort of game, so let’s go with the Bulldogs 1-12.
As for First Try Scorer – last season he did the business @ $29 for us one game, he owes us nothing and is the fastest player on the field over 10m. I expect a dart at the line early on catching the big Kiwi boppers napping, so let’s roll with MOSES MBYE at $23 for the first meat pie.
Outright Match Winner: CANTERBURY BULLDOGS
Margin Betting: BULLDOGS 1-12
First Try Scorer: MOSES MBYE
This is one club in turmoil against a club who have perpetually been in turmoil in recent seasons. The Gold Coast have lurched from one headache to another and it’s been a rough old start. From Hayne’s training issues, to a spate of injuries in their loss against everyone’s tip for the wooden spoon on the weekend, it’s been tough. To make matters ‘worse’ (or better – depends who you speak to) those mighty North Sydney Bears have come out of the forest to make a play at the Titans and their NRL licence this week. The Titans are broke and owned by the NRL whilst the Bears have been in the wilderness since the end of Super League to the distress of many. Stand Aside, there is chaos on the glitter strip!! Gold Coast Bears, East Coast Bears, Central Coast Bears…..oh come on, I say Bring Back The Bears! Maybe the teddies might be back on the road again…….
Back to this match: Parramatta are a very settled club both on and off the pitch. They have started the season brilliantly and look to make it 3 on end against the Coast that may soon grizzle. They look likely to be too strong. I don’t think there is great value diving into the odds-on though, sometimes when your back is up against the wall and you are at home, you can really pull things out of the fire. This is why the better option is to take the GOLD COAST +5.5 start. They might not win the game but you still get the chance to collect.
We are going to go with KONRAD HURRELL for First Try Scorer. He is around the $17 mark, so he is some decent value to burst through early doors.
Outright Match Winner: PARRAMATTA
Line Betting: GOLD COAST +5.5
First Try Scorer: KONRAD HURRELL
This is an interesting match-up here. The Knights – bless them – toppled the Gold Coast at home on the weekend much to the delight of the steel city faithful, they were great scenes of passion and loyalty, just what our game of Rugby League is all about. Will this give them added momentum and a belief they can win games? I think it will. Souths – on the other hand turned Lottoland into La La Land for their supporters, dishing out a spanking to the Sea Eagles. This big win was spearheaded by Adam Reynolds, who showed how vital he is to their successes.
The was a lot to like about the Rabbitohs win last week, their attitude and go forward stood out. They head up the freeway full of confidence and SOUTHS have to be the tip to overcome a dogged and determined Knights outfit. Not only that, I don’t think the line is big enough. I expect the Rabbitohs to cover the 4.5 start. Get involved!
I know there is a bit of dodgy weather around, but both these teams can score points. There is no doubt about that. The Total Points line sits around 42.5, that’s not enough. This game could be 60 points in total, and as such, we simply have to go OVER 42.5 Total Points.
Losing GI at the best of times will cause tears to flow in Redfern and he is a big loss to the Bunnies this year, however one young kid has stepped up to the plate to fill the void, and if last week is anything to go by, he could be the long term successor to the great man: ALEX JOHNSTON. Kid can play. Take some of the $12 for him to be First Try Scorer.
Outright Match Winner: SOUTH SYDNEY
Line Betting: SOUTH SYDNEY -4.5
Total Points Betting: OVER 42.5 POINTS
First Try Scorer: ALEX JOHNSTON
How’s about this game huh? The Roosters are 2 from 2 and were many peoples pre-season tip, just as hot a tip before the season started were the Panthers, except they went out against St George believing the hype before being dealt a massive reality check. The Panthers bounced back in emphatic fashion last week and it sets the platform for a great match – on that I tip the Panthers to absolutely dominate.
I am a big marn with a big opinion, and being a former Panthers legend, I see nothing else but a PENRITH victory. To what extent you ask? I will tell you to what extent – how about some PENRITH 13+. You can get $4.50 or 7/2 in the old. I am all over that. All Over it.
Both teams can score points and score them quickly, so glancing in the direction of the total points market, 37.5 line isn’t enough. Take OVER 37.5 Total Match Points as the play here.
Finally – he is a big, powerful unit and can often make a meal of a try when gifted it, but he seems to carry the ball with a lot more security these days. I am talking about WAQA BLAKE. I am going to tip him as First Try Scorer this week. He runs hard and can be difficult to stop close to the line.
Outright Match Winner: PENRITH
Margin Betting: PENRITH 13+
Total Points Betting: OVER 37.5 POINTS
First Try Scorer: WAQA BLAKE
It is so good to see young Kayln Ponga get a start in this game, the kid is an incredible talent and he will do a great job filling in for Lachlan Coote. The Cowboys have a few headaches here: losing Matt Scott for the season and their most devastating forward Taumalolo has been banned for a shoulder charge. This brings them back a bit against a team who actually seem to go very well in Townsville each year. Last season Manly were given no hope, but it took a late Cowboys try sealed it for the home side.
I think the bet of the round is MANLY +11.5 start. It is big. Too big. With some real potency missing from the Cowboys up front, and the Sea Eagles desperate to take the mallet to the rubbish talk that has already started about Trent Barrett’s role as coach, I expect the Sea Eagles to show some ticker. The silly season has begun in earnest.
As for First Try Scorer – he has been quiet since landing his multi-year mega deal with Manly, but he is now taking on the best in Thurston, and I am tipping DALY CHERRY-EVANS for First Try Scorer. Big odds, worth a few bob.
Outright Match Winner: NORTH QLD COWBOYS
Line Betting: MANLY +11.5
First Try Scorer: DALY CHERRY-EVANS
The tale of two mauling’s. Both sides come into this game on the back of hidings they copped last week. How does that translate into this round? Good question. The Raiders were annihilated by the Sharks in Canberra, whilst the Panthers tore the Tigers to shreds as well and they bump heads now in the nation’s capital in a pretty important game.
The Raiders have some big inclusions for the match, the brilliant Jarrod Croker is back whilst Dave Taylor gets a look at the bench. Make sure it is re-enforced. That is one big unit sitting on it. They are two massive inclusions for the local side, and whilst I cannot go near their outright price to win this game, with very little confidence I am tipping the RAIDERS.
With a bit more confidence what I am tipping is a slew of points as both sides are not only capable of scoring points, but leaking them as well. I am very keen on the OVER 47.5 Total Match Points for this game. Sunday arvo footy is conducive to plenty of points, this should be a points fest.
He is their favourite son in the nation’s capital and needs to fire on all cylinders to get the green machine purring along, so let’s look to BLAKE AUSTIN to open the try scoring on Sunday afternoon. At around $15 he is good value.
Outright Match Winner: CANBERRA
Total Points Betting: OVER 47.5 POINTS
First Try Scorer: BLAKE AUSTIN
Here we go – the big local derby. The Sharks are loving life after securing their first ever premiership, whilst a club with a rich tradition of premierships – St George – languish as they have done in recent seasons. Form can often mean nothing in these derbies and last year they ended up one a-piece. How will things pan out on the weekend?
The Sharks really found their mojo against the Raiders last week. They looked sharp, ran great angles and are on some sort of roll here. Their young hooker is the goods and guess who is back? Val Holmes. That’s a massive plus for the home side. The Dragons came back to earth after their stunning Round-1 belting of the premiership favourites, losing to Parramatta – but to be fair, Parra are a damn good side.
I cannot see anything other than a CRONULLA SHARKS victory. In fact, I think this will be a blow out to the home side and am tipping the SHARKS 13+. The way they played last week was just ‘wow’. They repeat that this week, the Dragons will have no answers.
As for First Try Scorer – ok maybe I am biased as I do enjoy his company on the Footy Show when he comes on. He is a small man with a big smile and a great football brain who knows his way to the try line. JAMES MALONEY. $18+ is a good price.
Outright Match Winner: CRONULLA SHARKS
Margin Betting: CRONULLA 13+
First Try Scorer: JAMES MALONEY