Big Marns Round 11 Betting Preview | NRL Betting Tips

Origin is around the corner, some must win games for teams this weekend

Thu, 18 May, 1:40 AM



LEG – 1: 


LEG - 2:

TIGERS + 14.5 start

LEG – 3:

SEA EAGLES straight out

LEG – 4:

KNIGHTS / PANTHERS: Total Points = OVER 44.5

CRONULLA SHARKS vs NTH QLD COWBOYS - Thursday night 7.50pm, Shark Park

Even though I tipped the Cowboys last week to upset the Dogs, this week I am siding with the mighty Sharkies. Yes they scraped home against the Rev V and despite a very poor record at home, I feel this is the game they will get right back on track. I can’t see Thurston playing and I firmly believe the Sharks have the wood over the Cowboys. It will still be ingrained in the QLD’ers memory the flogging the Sharks dished out to them in the semis last year and this could work against them.

So I am sticking with the SHARKS, I think the line of 5.5 isn’t enough so let’s go with CRONULLA -5.5 and VAL HOLMES ($13) to score the First Try.  Sharks too good on all fronts.






Outright Match Winner:


Line Betting:

SHARKS -5.5 start

First Try Scorer:


NZ WARRIORS vs ST GEORGE-ILLAWARRA - Friday night 6.00pm, FMG Stadium

Oh dear, what to do here. For some unknown reason I am tipping the WARRIORS but with absolutely no confidence at all. There is a lot going on with both teams – Warriors losing Foran next season and Kata for this game whilst Johnson hasn’t been the player we thought he would be this season. Dragons have their own issues: Packer is leaving, Dugan is leaving, seems those early season wheels are wobbling quite a bit. All makes for a very tough assignment to tip a winner and a profitable strategy on this game!


As a betting man I wouldn’t be having a dime on the Warriors at the odds, but I think they will bumble and stumble to win the game. The bet is to hop on the DRAGONS +6.0 start. The Dragons have enough cattle to give the Warriors a shake. I mean how did the Warriors lose that game last week?  Once Were Warriors in the 1st half. Once were turnstiles in the 2nd half.


There is a young Warrior who has a bit of a future and I am going to go with him to score First Try – CHARNZE NICOLL-KLOKSTAD ($11). Scored twice in two games of NRL and has been electric in NSW Cup this season. Kid can play.





Outright Match Winner:


Line Betting:

DRAGONS + 6.0 Start

First Try Scorer:


BRISBANE BRONCOS vs WESTS TIGERS - Friday night 7.50pm, Suncorp Stadium

I am posed with a dilemma by the Broncos. For weeks I say that they don’t convince me, yet they just keep on winning. They have some good players back into the side as well this week, which makes me tip the BRONCOS to win, but for investment purposes, the bet is definitely WESTS TIGERS +14.5 start. Last season I was laughed at for tipping the Tigers to beat them in Brisbane @ $5.00 and they duly did the business. Whilst it might be a stretch to tip them outright here, with the start they look a shoe in, especially as the inspirational future Bulldog Woods is back in the side.


Speaking of defectors, he is on his last chance here with me: JAMES TEDESCO ($15). He hasn’t been as devastating this season as he was last year, but with his future shored up in the swanky Eastern Suburbs, I expect him to go cock-a-doodle-do and touch down first in Brisvegas on Friday night.



Outright Match Winner:


Line Betting:

WESTS TIGERS + 14.5 Start

First Try Scorer:


GOLD COAST TITANS vs MANLY SEA EAGLES - Saturday afternoon 5.30pm, Cbus Super Stadium

Here’s a game. What about the Sea Eagles? Another CEO departs the beaches. It is almost as if the playing group are immune to the off field dramas. They had Brisbane done to a dinner at half-time last week only to concede 24 unanswered points in the 2nd half. Whilst earlier the Gold Coast snatched the most unbelievable victory thanks to the actions of the Don – Is Don, Is Good. Here they are going head-to-head in what will be a very exciting clash.


The Coast have to deal with this constant struggle of injuries, it does show the depth of their squad as they put out a decent side here, but something has to give. The Eagles have lost a superstar in Trbojevic, but they are playing good footy and despite the 2nd half last week, they look a great bet as outsiders. Get on the EAGLES ($2.4).


It is a Manly trait to come out of the blocks hard and we expect the same here. Take the EAGLES / EAGLES HT-FT Double ($3.45) . To top it off, this young bloke has been in really good form this season and knows his way to the tryline – BRIAN KELLY ($15). With DCE pulling the strings, look to the fling out wide and Kelly darting over.



Outright Match Winner:


HT / FT Double:


First Try Scorer:


PARRAMATTA EELS vs CANBERRA RAIDERS - Saturday afternoon 7.30pm, ANZ Stadium

Gee what about these two sides?  A lot of people thought these two sides were the competition smokeys but to be brutally honest they have been really disappointing. Especially the Raiders. Getting smacked by the lowly Knights doesn’t sit well on their season CV.


I called the game last weekend and the Raiders had no bite, no sparkle, schoolboy errors and loads of running across field. Got to go straight lads. I was expecting Ricky Stuart to self-detonate on the sidelines, but he was actually pretty passive. Maybe mellowing in his old age?


Parramatta were pumped by a red hot Roosters outfit so it is the clash of the hammered, but Corey Norman is a big loss for the Eels. They get Moses, but you cannot expect him to slot straight in and be the best player on the field. Canberra need to pull their fingers out and play footy, they need to win after 3 straight losses and based on the desperation factor, I am leaning towards CANBERRA.


BLAKE AUSTIN ($21) is due so we will side with him to be First Try Scorer, and as a result of the early lead, I expect them to lead from go to whoa so take the RAIDERS / RAIDERS HT-FT Double ($2.10) as well. Raiders must win this weekend if they are dead serious of being there at the business end of the season.



Outright Match Winner:


HT / FT Double:


First Try Scorer:


NEWCASTLE KNIGHTS vs PENRITH PANTHERS - Sunday afternoon 2.00pm, McDonald Jones Stadium

I must admit the Knights surprised me last week as they played well, really well. Their forwards were good with Ma’tautia off the charts, Safiti charging forward and the halves were good. Could they have turned their season around?


As for the Panthers – they were blown off the park early by the Warriors then performed the miracle comeback but these guys really need to get a decent win under the belt and I think they will explode on Sunday. I rate Matt Moylan so highly, they have plenty of cattle and this is the game to stand up and show what the chocolate soldiers are made of.


PENRITH to win, PENRITH 13+ Margin ($2.05), PENRITH/PENRITH HT-FT Double ($1.67) and ISAAH YEO ($26) to score First Try. All chips in Penrith.



Outright Match Winner:


Margin Betting:

PENRITH 13+ Margin

HT / FT Double:


First Try Scorer:



Roosters were sensational last week. They just wanted to play footy and were devastating against the hapless Eels. The Bulldogs go into this without Reynolds and that is a big loss, Mbye hasn’t been the same player this year and will need to step up rather quickly if the Bulldogs are to have any chance.


The Bulldogs are a grinding team and will look to a war of attrition to try and grind the Roosters down. They will have to work very hard as the Roosters halves have been explosive, their backs potent and their forwards rampaging. In reality I cannot see the Bulldogs ending up on the right side of the scoreboard and I have to tip the ROOSTERS to win. I think they can do it easily enough too, ROOSTERS -6.5 start looks a handy bet.


DANIEL TUPOU – or TANIELA as is his real name ($10) loves nothing more than a one-handed plant of the footy in the corner, expect to see the big unit reach out with that giant paw and sneak one just inside the touchline early on. Roosters for mine. They will be too good.



Outright Match Winner:


Line Betting:

ROOSTERS -6.5 start

First Try Scorer:


SOUTH SYDNEY vs MELBOURNE STORM - Sunday evening 6.30pm, NIB Stadium

We trek over to the west for this encounter. The Storm will be smarting after last weeks’ loss, whilst the Bunnies put a diabolical Wests Tigers to the sword. Expect this to be the battle of the Origin hookers in Farah and Smith, it should be a great game. Sometimes when the Storm lose one, they can go on a bit of a downward roll. I don’t expect it to last long here though, as they simply have way too much class for the bunnies.


I am tipping the STORM to win, but the value lies in taking the STORM to cover the 8 point start. The Rabbitohs lurch from getting flogged to dishing out a flogging, they can be a hard side to weigh up and as such Storm to control this one.


CAMERON MUNSTER ($21) has been touted as a future State Of Origin player and when you play with the calibre of Smith, Cronk  and Slater, you are going to learn from the best. Let’s take the big odds about him to score first on Sunday in WA.



Outright Match Winner:


Line Betting:

STORM -8.0 start

First Try Scorer:


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