Queensland vs New South Wales (Wednesday) Betting Preview & Tips

Will the Blues create history and win the series at Suncorp?

Oddschecker
 | 
Tue, 11 Jul, 5:57 AM

Will the Blues create history and win the series at Suncorp?

 

The first two games of the 2017 State Of Origin series have gone the way of the visiting side and if it were to happen again on Wednesday night, a big slice of history will have been achieved.

 

New South Wales has won just two of 10 deciders hosted at Suncorp Stadium (aka Lang Park) while the last time an away team won all three games in Origin was back in 1998.

 

Laurie Daley has gone with the same 17 players from Games I and II which is the first time since 1996.

 

It is hard to argue with his way of thinking after the Blues completely dominated Game I at this venue to win 28-4 while their first 40 minutes in the second game, which saw them winning 16-6, could hardly be faulted.

 

The fact the Blues let that lead slip over the last half hour of that match to go down 18-16 will definitely be playing on their minds.

 

How that same 17 react now that they’ve been given a chance for redemption will be the big question.

 

There are several injury concerns for New South Wales with captain Boyd Cordner battling a calf issue while Dragons duo Tyson Frizell and Josh Dugan are struggling with problems of their own.

 

The series has been brutal no doubt about that, with Queensland probably the biggest losers in all that with Johnathan Thurston missing the game due to his re-occurring shoulder problem.

 

Such is the influence of the future immortal that betting agencies all but swung the markets when it was announced he wasn’t lining up in Game III.

 

Queensland went from favourites to outsiders but since Kevin Walters named his side early last week, money has started to come for the Maroons at the juicy odds. Unibet are best in market at the moment and are offering up $2.25 about their chances of winning.

 

Melbourne Storm five-eight Cameron Munster has been called in for his Origin debut by Walters and will replace Thurston. This seems the logical way to go for the Queenslanders as he has a natural affiliation with halves partner Cooper Cronk.

 

We believe this game will be won in the halves.

 

New South Wales have the better forward pack but they have to play 80 minutes. Andrew Fifita was a wrecking ball in Game I despite playing less than 50 minutes while he was well contained in Game II. We expect the big fella to produce a mammoth performance in the cauldron here which will give the Blues every chance to pile on the points.

 

Scoring, however, will come down to James Maloney and Mitchell Pearce and the latter has to get his kicking game in order if his side is to win the game.

 

Queensland need Cooper Cronk to stand up.

 

He was completely out of answers in Game I while in Game II it was left to a bit of Thurston magic, along with some help from the forwards, to engineer the comeback.

 

We think the result will be known in the first few minutes.

 

If the referees do a similar job to what they did in Game II then there will be a few penalties early on. Whichever side gets those penalties will go a long way to winning the match.

 

If they let the game flow then it will definitely play in the hands of the Blues who have outrun their opponents in terms of running metres throughout the series so far.

 

TIP: New South Wales

 

MARGIN TIP: New South Wales 13+ - they were ultra impressive in Game I and we think they won’t let the opportunity slip here like they did at ANZ Stadium

 

1ST TRYSCORER TIP: Dane Gagai – who else? He has seven tries in six Origins

 

TOTAL SCORE TIP: Under 32.5

 

TO SCORE A TRY AT ANYTIME TIP: Tyson Frizell – the barnstorming forward has two tries in Origin and is value to cross the line on Wednesday

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