Tipsters had trouble in Round 5 of the NRL
It was definitely a week for value in the NRL with a total of four of the eight games going to outsiders. While that number doesn’t seem huge, consider this – Wests Tigers were the biggest outsider to salute when paying around the $3 mark to beat Melbourne.
Other upsets over the weekend saw Gold Coast go back-to-back for the first time since Round 19 last season when beating Manly; Newcastle topping the Broncos for just the second time in 13 games; and the Warriors going 5-0 after disposing of the Cowboys.
Granted, a few of those ‘upsets’ were 50/50 because the Knights and Warriors began $1.90 each of two with their respective opponents, however, opened the week as the betting outsider.
It is now seriously time to consider backing Parramatta in Most Losses markets.
The Eels are now 0-5 for the first time since 1991 and only one team in the past 20 years has been able to recover from such a start to make finals and that was Brisbane back in 1999.
While their effort against Penrith was far better on Sunday afternoon, they are still the worst attacking team in the comp while defensively they rank 15th of the 16 sides.
Punters can still secure $3.75 about the Blue and Golds in the Most Losses market (@ TAB) with Parramatta now the only side without a win in the NRL after five rounds.
Up next: Parramatta ($2.30) travels to the nation’s capital to take on Canberra who will be looking to build some momentum after their first win of the season last week.
Do it once, it may be a fluke and even if you do it twice then it could still be explained as a freak set of circumstances, however, Wests Tigers are 4-1 and there is definitely no doubting them as finals contenders.
Bookies have shortened the Tigers odds of making the top 8 with Centrebet still offering $2.10 about their chances of a finals appearance.
Ivan Cleary’s men are unlucky not to be unbeaten after five rounds and anyone that thought their win against Melbourne in Round 2 was a fluke surely can’t say that about their win over the Storm last week. The Tigers have beaten Melbourne in consecutive games for the first time in club history while they have also taken the scalps of the Roosters and Eels already this campaign.
Up next: Wests Tigers ($1.95) are the slight outsiders for their trip to Lottoland to face Manly. The venue itself has been a graveyard for the merged entity with eight straight losses dating back to 2004.
NO FINALS FOOTY
A finals series without the Broncos would certainly be strange indeed but that could be a reality in 2018.
The Broncos are 2-3 after their loss to Newcastle on Saturday night and don’t appear anywhere near the level required to be considered a top eight contender. The loss of Ben Hunt to the Dragons is certainly hurting them because the Kodi Nikorima / Anthony Milford experiment just doesn’t seem to be working.
Wayne Bennett’s side has lost to the Dragons, Titans and Knights while their two victories against the Cowboys and Tigers had more than an element of luck about them.
Things need to turn around quick for the Broncos if they want to avoid missing out on the top eight for the second time in five seasons. They are $1.70 @ TAB to miss out on finals footy.
Up next: It doesn’t get any easier for Brisbane ($2.55) who travel across the Tasman to take on the unbeaten Warriors.