It’s the local derby that always provides a fiery clash and tonight will not disappoint. The Roosters overcame their woeful display against the Warriors by putting 28 points on the Sharks at Southern Cross Group Stadium. The Roosters completed at 80 percent for the first time this season. South Sydney will be without big man Sam Burgess as he faces his second week of suspension.
The Roosters have won the past three matches over Souths and their winning ways look set to continue. At Allianz Stadium, the Roosters lost their last match played there, but have only lost on one other occasion in the past 13 matches played at the venue. Unfortunately for South Sydney, Allianz isn’t a favourite venue for them. They have lost their past three matches played there and only have one win from the past seven attempts.
The last time these sides played the margin was two points, however, looking at the past five clashes the margin is 14 or more points on three occasions. Latrell Mitchell has two tries this season and was responsible for the 1st try when these sides met in Round 4 last season.
Best Bet: Roosters 1-12 (Margin) @ $2.80*
Value Bet: Latrell Mitchell 1st Try Scorer
In previous years, this match would look to be a battle between David and Goliath, but the Knights have found some incredible form and the Storm are currently in their worst start to a season since 2004. Melbourne Storm went down to the Wests Tigers for the second time this season and it’s the first time they have lost consecutive matches since 2015. What’s concerning for Melbourne is they lead the league in errors at 74, which is very “un-Melbourne like”. The Knights looked enthusiastic in their win over Brisbane. They dominated the Broncos across the park. The Storm has won the past four straight over Newcastle. They also boast a very impressive home record with only three losses from the past 18 matches played there and expect them to bounce back in front of their home crowd. A daunting task for the Knights who haven’t won at AAMI Park since Round 24 2015 and have only managed to notched up two wins at the venue in club history.
Suliasi Vunivalu likes playing against the Knights. He has scored four tries in his past three matches against them, which includes a double when these teams played at AAMI Park in Round 13 last season.
Best Bet: Melbourne Storm 13+ (Margin) @ $2.10
Value Bet: Suliasi Vunivalu 1st Try scorer
Another mouth-watering local derby in Round 6. The Dragons remain one of two sides undefeated to kick start 2018. Starting 5-0 is the best start for the Dragons in club history and we think the Dragons will get the win in front of their home crowd tonight. What’s exciting for Dragons fans is of the 11 teams to have won their opening five matches, only one side has missed out on playing in the finals since 1998. The Dragons have won their past two matches at WIN Stadium. This will be the Sharks first time at WIN Stadium since 2014. They have played there on six occasions with only one win back in 2013.
The Sharks poor record at home continued last week when they went down to the Roosters 28-6. Valentine Holmes recorded his 8th career double. The Dragons won this match when the sides faced each other back in Round 2 this season. The past three matches have been close affairs decided by six points or less, but they are not high scoring affairs. Of the past six matches, five have been 36 points or less. Only one occasion saw 50 points. Euan Aitken has scored three tries in his past three matches against the Sharks.
Best Bet: Dragons/Under 36.5 points (HdtoHd/OverUnder) @ $2.75*
Value Bet: Euan Aitken 1st Tryscorer
Mt Smart Stadium
The upsets continued for the Warriors who downed the Cowboys 22-12. Alongside the Dragons, the Warriors remain undefeated at 5-0 for the first time in their club’s history. This is also the first time the Warriors have won five consecutive matches since 2013. The Warriors attack has been outstanding scoring 20 or more points in each game, but it was their defence that Stephen Kearney was most impressed with against the Cowboys. In the opening five games, the Warriors have now conceded the fewest points in their history. The Warriors new mentality and winning ways look set to continue today.
The Broncos lost to the Knights last weekend with Wayne Bennett coming out saying poor results are from lack of confidence and poor execution. This is their second season where they have started 2-3. The Broncos have lost their past two matches against the Warriors at Mt Smart Stadium. On both occasions the margin was 18 points.
David Fusitua is the current leading try scorer this season with seven tries in five games, which includes three doubles. He loves playing at Mt Smart Stadium with seven tries in his past five games there. Look for him to notch up another career double.
Best Bet: Warriors 1-12 (Margin) @ $2.70*
Value Bet: David Fusitua 2+ tries
North Queensland can get their season back on track with a win here. The Cowboys have lost four straight games heading into this one but even still, they have shown far more in defeat than what the Bulldogs have so far through five rounds. Both teams are 1-4 at this point of the campaign but the Cowboys have won six of the past seven clashes between the sides. Making the task for the Dogs, who were just poor against the Raiders last week, is the fact they are staring down the barrel of three straight losses in Townsville.
While the Cowboys are short, the value could be in margin betting. The North Queensland outfit has won their past five against Canterbury by an average margin of 15 points. For try scorers, look to Coen Hess who has bagged three tries in two matches against the Bulldogs.
Best Bet: Cowboys (Win) @ $1.28*
Value Bet: Cowboys -10.5 (Line) @ $2
Canberra has found the perfect game to help build some momentum following their first win of the season last week. The Raiders had dropped the first four games of the season prior to an emphatic win over Canterbury last week and now have the chance to win consecutive games for the first time since Round 23 last year. Canberra has won nine of the past 11 clashes between the sides dating back to 2010.
Making the Raiders look an even more solid bet is the fact Parramatta has a shocking record at GIO Stadium. The Eels, the only winless side after five rounds, have won just twice in the nation’s capital since 2000 and that includes a current seven-game losing streak. They are off to their worst start to a season since 1991.
Want some value? BJ Leilua bagged the first two tries of last week match and is a player to follow. He has scored in consecutive games against the Eels. Another player to follow is Nick Cotric who has also crossed the line twice in two games against the Blue and Golds.
Best Bet: Raiders (Win) @ $1.62*
Value Bet: BJ Leilua First Try Scorer
This game is set to be a real test for both sides. Penrith are 4-1 with their only loss coming to the Bulldogs while the Titans are 3-2 and have won consecutive games against the Broncos and Sea Eagles.
Penrith’s defence has been one of the big reasons they have got off to such an impressive start. They are conceding an average of just 13.6 points per game, putting them fifth in the competition in that category. What’s more impressive is that their past two wins have been without gun half Nathan Cleary who is still out injured for an extended period.
Gold Coast arguably has come through the best formline in the NRL with their only two losses being against unbeaten duo St. George Illawarra and New Zealand. They have lost six of their past eight matches against the Panthers though but have a decent record at Pepper Stadium where they have split the results with the home side in their past four clashes.
The past three matchups between the sides at this venue have been close affairs and decided by an average of just 4.66 points.
Best Bet: Titans + 7.5 (Line) @ $1.90*
Value Bet: Titans (Win) @ $3*
What an absolute cracker this game promises to be! Manly are playing host to one of the surprise packets of the competition in Wests Tigers and if history is anything to go by, there’s going to be plenty of points on offer. Those looking to have a bet on Total Match Points should be aware that an average has topped 51 points at their past five clashes.
Manly’s road woes continued last week but returning home could result in another win. The Sea Eagles have traded wins and losses to start 2018 with their only two wins being at Lottoland. In fact, dating back to Round 13 last year, Manly has won seven straight matches at home.
Wests Tigers have had arguably the toughest run of any team so far but are 4-1 after wins against Melbourne (twice), Sydney Roosters and Parramatta. Ivan Cleary’s men have the best defence in the competition but their form is set to be tested as they have a shocking record on the Northern Beaches with eight straight losses going back to 2004.
Best Bet: Over 36.5 (Total Points) @ $1.85*
Value Bet: Tigers 1-12 (Margin) @ $3.40*