After losing six of their past seven clashes, the Cowboys finally recorded a much needed win to keep their season alive. The Cowboys withstood a second half onslaught by the Panthers to win 26-20. The Cowboys will travel to face the Tigers who are coming in off their third straight loss. In a game that should have been tightly contested, the Tigers were no match for the understrength Warriors side with 15 errors and 34 missed tackles. It’s a concerning loss for the Tigers who seem to have lost the good form they displayed at the start of the season. The Head-to-Head stats between these sides favour the Tigers who have won two of the past three encounters but the Cowboys won the most recent clash in Round 25 last season by eight points. The past four matches have been decided within the 1-12 margin and three of the past five matches have seen 40 points or less scored. We think the Cowboys in another close one.
Kyle Feldt has scored six tries in nine games this season. Last time these sides met, Feldt scored a double. Watch out for him to cross the line tonight.
Best Bet: Cowboys 1-12 (Margin) @ $2.80*
Value Bet: Kyle Feldt to score 1+ Try/ Cowboys to win
McDonald Jones Stadium
The first of the Friday night games sees both teams looking to bounce back. The Knights were handed their first home loss of the season when they were stunned 36-18 at the hands of South Sydney. Penrith were upset when the out of form Cowboys won 26-20. The Panthers made it tough for themselves having to chase from 20-nil down and whilst they put in a good effort, it wasn’t enough in the end. All three of Penrith’s losses this season have been by six points or less. A blow for the Panthers is Trent Merrin on the sideline after fracturing his finger in the warm up before last week’s game. Newcastle has struggled against the Panthers in recent times. They have lost the past four matches and six of the past seven. The margin in all six of those losses has been by an average of 24.66 points. The last time the Knights recorded a win over the Panthers was in 2015. The Panthers will continue their winning streak tonight with a convincing win.
For players of total points, these matches tend to be high scoring affairs with over 40 points in the past six matches, which includes 50 points last time these teams met.
Best Bet: Panthers 13+ (Margin) @ $3.20*
Value Bet: Panthers/ Over 40 Points
It’s the battle of the west in the second Friday night match. Both sides are coming in off disappointing two-point losses. The Bulldogs loss to the Broncos was controversial when Moses Mbye was sent to the sin bin in the final minute of the game. The Bulldogs were the better side on the night with a 72 percent completion rate but the Broncos found a way to win. It was a tough night for Mitchell Moses who headed into the last quarter of the match with zero run metres from zero runs. He did score a late try but missed the conversion that would have taken the game to golden point. Parramatta are on a four-game winning streak over the Bulldogs. Parramatta have won their past two matches played at ANZ stadium, whilst the Bulldogs have lost their past two matches played there. Matches tend to be low scoring affairs with six of the past seven clashes failing to top 34 points.
Watch out for Bevan French. He has two tries under his belt this season after struggling with his shoulder injury. He scored in both matches when Parramatta played the Bulldogs last season.
Best Bet: Bevan French to score
Value Bet: Parramatta/Under 40 points
Mt Smart Stadium
The Warriors snapped their four-game losing streak against the Tigers with a 26-4 Round 9 win. Roger Tuivasa-Sheck was outstanding for his side as he ran for 145 metres with nine tackle busts. Although the win has come at a huge cost with Issac Luke, Shaun Johnson and Adam Blair all with injury concerns. The Warriors now sit one win behind the Dragons on the premiership ladder. The Roosters notched up a two point victory over a struggling Sea Eagles side last week. While they got the job done, there is certainly plenty of work to be done if they are any chance today. The Warriors have won the past four games over the Roosters, which includes a 24-point victory in Round 4 this season. The past two matches at Mt Smart Stadium have been tight affairs with the Warriors winning by one or two points.
David Fusitu’a currently leads the try scoring table with Josh Addo-Carr on 11. In the past two matches against the Roosters he has scored in each game, plus Fusitu’a likes playing at Mt Smart Stadium as he has recorded six tries there this season including two doubles.
Best Bet: Warriors (Win) @ $1.73*
Value Bet: David Fusitu’a to score 2+ tries
Melbourne are looking the goods to bounce back from their defeat to the league-leading Dragons last weekend when they host the Gold Coast. Although this is a ‘home’ game for the Storm, it’s being played at Suncorp and it may as well be AAMI Park because they have a formidable record at the ground of nine wins from their past 10 starts. That one loss, however, came against the Titans last year.
The Storm were looking for a club record five straight wins over the Titans the last time they met which was this very round last season. Gold Coast pulled off a huge upset by winning a thrilling contest 38-36. Last week’s 34-14 loss to the Dragons was the most points Craig Bellamy’s side has conceded since that defeat.
Gold Coast comes into this contest having dropped four straight matches and could be without Jai Arrow, Ryan Simpkins and Keegan Hipgrave while Nathan Peats isn’t ready to return just yet.
This is a game that requires you to shop around for a bit of value and ‘The Fox’ has been the punters pal of late bagging nine tries in four matches. Go for Josh Addo-Carr to Score 2+ Tries.
Best Bet: Melbourne 13+ (Margin) @ $1.80*
Value Bet: Josh Addo Carr 2+ Tries
Manly’s woes are set to continue when they travel north to face Brisbane in the second match of a double-header at Suncorp Stadium.
The Sea Eagles have dropped five straight matches and are enduring their worst start to a season in almost 20 years. Making their task a lot worse is the fact they have lost four consecutive games at the venue since 2014 with the margin being 13+ on three of those occasions.
Coach Trent Barrett is also facing a horror injury toll but there were signs of life against the Roosters last week who they went down to 22-20. Even still, we can’t entertain them at this stage.
Brisbane is our bet here but a 1-12 margin is our tip because Wayne Bennett’s side aren’t exactly flying themselves and have lost a few key men including Jordan Kahu and Payne Haas while there are some concerns over Jack Bird and Alex Glenn.
Best Bet: Broncos (Win) @ $1.55*
Value Bet: Brisbane by 10 Points (Exact Margin)
This is going to be an absolute ripper at Homebush when the teams clash on Mother’s Day.
Souths have crept under the radar of most experts and are sitting at 5-4 but with some better game management and luck that record could easily read far better. One of those games that got away was a fortnight ago against Brisbane, when they were seemingly in control only to lose by four points. Similarly against the Dragons back in Round 5, they were never in the hunt but a flurry of late tries saw them in with a genuine chance of producing a big comeback.
If the Rabbitohs learn how to play for 80 minutes then they could trouble the competition favourites. Souths have a great recent record over the Dragons with six wins in their past eight matches (excluding Charity Shield matches).
The Dragons will fancy their chances of doing the double over the bunnies for the first time since 2010-11 after they beat Melbourne 34-14 at Kogarah last week to take their record to 8-1. Should they win again this week they will be the first team since Souths in 2013 to win nine of their first 10 games.
Paul Mcgregor’s side come into the game with the best attack and defence in the competition and are averaging nearly 30 points a game, however, their lowest tally of the season was against Souths (16).
Best Bet: Dragons (Win) @ $1.50*
Value Bet: Dragons by 6 Points (Exact Margin)
Canberra got off to a slow start this season but have found their feet of late with four wins from their past five starts.
That sort of form and the fact they’re playing at home makes them our top tip for this game. Ricky Stuart’s side has reversed a worrying trend from last season that saw them continually drop points in the nation’s capital but they come into this game with three straight wins at GIO Stadium.
Each of those has been by 13 points or more and that spells danger signs for Cronulla because Canberra are one of the hardest teams to beat in the comp when they get on a roll.
The Sharks though are in the best form of their campaign so far with three straight wins but each of those has been a struggle as victories over the Panthers, Titans and Eels have come at an average margin of just 2.33 points.
We think the Raiders will win and our value bet will be one of the members of the Green Machine – Jordan Rapana. The flying winger has scored in five straight games against Cronulla.
Best Bet: Raiders (Win) @ $1.54*
Value Bet: Jordan Rapana First Try Scorer