NRL Rd 11 Rugby League Preview & Betting Tips
We see some talented players return to the fold this weekend.
Panthers v Tigers
Both sides come into this clash off the back of big wins. The Tigers bounced back from three consecutive losses to post a 20-12 win over the Cowboys at Leichhardt Oval. This was their seventh successive win over the Cowboys at the venue. Mahe Fonua was outstanding with a career high 207 running meters and six tackle busts.
They now face a tougher task in the Panthers who looked good in their 11-point win over the Knights at McDonald Jones Stadium. James Maloney’s second half brilliance steered his side to victory and second spot on the ladder. A massive boost for The Panthers tonight is Nathan Cleary’s return. Penrith have continued to win with a depleted side and without their star player in Cleary. Ironically, Cleary returns the night he faces his father’s side! Penrith have won the past three matches over the Tigers. All three wins have been decided by double figure margins which includes two wins by 30 points.
Games between these sides tend to be high scoring affairs. Three of the last four matches have topped 40 points, which includes matches reaching 50 and 60 points.
Best Bet: Panthers 1-12 (Margin) @ $2.90*
Value Bet: Panthers / Over 40.5 Points (hd2Hd / OverUnder Double)
Eels v Warriors
The Warriors were thumped back to reality in their 32-0 loss to the Roosters at Mt Smart Stadium. This was the first time they have been kept scoreless since a 42-0 thrashing by Melbourne in 2016. Parramatta went down in a controversial loss to the Bulldogs. This was the fifth time this season the Eels have been held scoreless in the second half. With only two wins from their opening 10 matches, the Eels finals hopes are all but ended. On a positive note, Parramatta have won two of the past three matches against the Warriors, which includes an eight-point victory in Round 13 last season. ANZ Stadium is not a favoured venue for the Warriors. They have lost the past four matches played there, with their last win coming in 2011. Compared that to Parramatta, who, despite losing last round to the Bulldogs, have been victorious in the previous two encounters at the venue. Expect the Warriors to bounce back tonight
Simon Mannering, the 286 game Warriors veteran has been quiet on the try scoring front this season, however, Parramatta is a side he has a good record against. Mannering has scored four tries in his past three games against them.
Best Bet: Warriors 1-12 (Margin) @ $3*
Value Bet: Simon Mannering To Score A Try
Broncos v Roosters
The Roosters come into this clash off the back of an outstanding 32-0 victory over the Warriors, which has seen them record back-to-back wins for the second time this season and get their premiership campaign on track. The standouts for the Roosters were Blake Ferguson who scored a try, ran for 179 metres, 5 five tackle busts and James Tedesco who ran for over 200 meters for the third time in the past four games. Brisbane went down to the struggling Sea Eagles by 14 points, which has left fans questioning their halves combination. The 38 points scored by Manly is the most that Brisbane have conceded this season. The Roosters have won the past two matches over the Broncos, which includes their two-point victory in last year’s Quarter Final. Suncorp Stadium has been a struggle for the Roosters with four straight losses. This season, the Broncos have recorded two wins at the venue. The past two matches between these teams have decided by two points, but the four previous games were won by double figure margins.
This season Corey Oates has scored four tries, with just one at Suncorp Stadium. He does, however, have three tries in his past two matches against the Roosters.
Best Bet: Corey Oates Anytime Tryscorer
Value Bet: Sydney Roosters / Under 41.5 Points (Hd2Hd / OverUnder Double)
Titans v Knights
Cbus Super Stadium
The Titans have now lost five straight matches after going down 28-14 to Melbourne at Lang Park. They did lead 14-8 at one point in the game but displayed again why they are the NRL’s worst defensive team. Plenty of leaks allowed a sloppy Storm to get the two points. Bryce Cartwright is still struggling to find form and could be dropped for this match but coach Garth Brennan welcomes back Nathan Peats. The Knights went down to a clinical Panthers side 29-18 last week and will be keen to get back to the winners stall.
Promising news for Titans fans is they have a great record over the Knights with three wins in the past four games, which includes a 30-point victory last time they met in Round 9 last season. Interestingly, Cbus is not a favoured venue for either side.
The Titans have only recorded one win there in their past five games, whilst the Knights have lost their past two matches played there. Despite their poor record against the Titans, the Knights will be too good today. Konrad Hurrell was dropped for his side’s match against the Storm. Today could be the day we see him return to form as he has scored a double in both matches played against the Knights last season.
Best Bet: Knights 1-12 (Margin) @ $3.20*
Value Bet: Konrad Hurrell To Score A Try
Cowboys v Rabbitohs
Souths have a great chance to break a hoodoo against North Queensland when they travel to Townsville this weekend.
The bunnies have lost eight of their past nine when facing the Cowboys while they only have one win at 1300Smiles Stadium since 2010. Historical trends should be put aside though as these sides are on totally different ends of the form spectrum.
Souths have won four of their past five games and last week defeated the competition leaders, Stgeorge Illawarra. On the flip side, North Queensland dropped a 20-12 decision against Wests Tigers to put them at 3-7 which is their worst start to a season since 2010.
The home side has struggled for points this season and are ranked 14th in the competition, only in front of Parramatta and Canterbury. Making their task worse here is that their defence is conceding 22.2 points per game.
Anthony Siebold’s men will smell blood and fancy their chances against the Cowboys so jump on Souths to get the job done here.
Best Bet: Souths (Win) @ $1.72*
Value Bet: Souths 13+ (Margin) @ $3.60
Storm v Sea Eagles
Melbourne look one of the better bets of the weekend but punters are being asked to take short odds.
The Storm have made AAMI Park a fortress for the better part of a decade and have won nine of their past 10 home matches, with the only loss being a two-point defeat at the hands of Wests Tigers back in Round 2.
They come into this match with four wins from their past five starts and returned to the winners circle last week with a tough win over the Titans.
Manly showed what they are capable of with a relieving 38-24 win over Brisbane at Suncorp Stadium last week – their first win in six weeks. That win was just their second from 13 matches on the road so we cannot jump into them here simply because they aren’t a road team.
Looking for some value? Then look no further than money machine Josh Addo-Carr who has crossed the line in five straight matches. Back him in the First Try Scorer market and also to bag 2+ Tries as ‘The Fox’ aims to score against the Sea Eagles for third time in as many matches.
Best Bet: Melbourne (Win) @ $1.47*
Value Bet: Josh Addo-Carr First Try Scorer
Dragons v Raiders
Glen Willow Oval
Can the Dragons remain alone at the top of the NRL premiership?
We’ll get the answer on Sunday afternoon when they head to Mudgee to play the Raiders at Glen Willow Oval. The Red V come into the match having looked flat in a 24-10 defeat to the bunnies at their bogey ground of ANZ Stadium. That was just their second loss in 10 matches and you have to go back to Round 22 last year to find the last time they dropped back-to-back games.
Recent history against the Raiders suggests the Dragons will get the two points today. They have beaten Canberra in four of their past five clashes but did lose their last encounter which happened to be at GIO Stadium in Round 19 last year.
Canberra looked in cruise control against Cronulla last week before the Sharks fought back in the second half to snatch a 24-16 result. Prior to that the Green Machine had won four of their past five games, however, all those wins have been against the bottom four sides.
Ricky Stuart’s men have the fifth attack in the competition but only have a plus/minus differential of six and that show you how poor their defence has been.
Best Bet: Dragons (Win) @ $1.37*
Value Bet: Matt Dufty First Try Scorer
Sharks v Bulldogs
Southern Cross Group Stadium
Are the Sharks one of the best bets of the weekend?
We definitely think so! Cronulla are on a season-best four straight wins coming into this encounter and they face a Bulldogs side who they’ve had the wood on in recent seasons.
Cronulla’s winning streak is even more impressive considering their extensive injury list although captain Paul Gallen has been named to return this week, giving the side an extra boost. Jason Bakuya is also due to return to the starting line-up.
Canterbury scored a much needed win last week against Parramatta but a win against the bottom-placed side hardly instils confidence from a punting point of view.
Our money is with the Sharks but if you do fancy the Dogs putting up a fight then back Brett Morris to be First Try Scorer or even To Score A Try. The winner has scored 15 times in 16 matches against Cronulla.
Best Bet: Cronulla (Win) @ $1.50*
Value Bet: Brett Morris First Try Scorer