NRL Rd 12 Rugby League Preview & Betting Tips
Footy fans will be dished up a treat this weekend with a top of the table clash the highlight!
Broncos v Eels
The Eels season is going from bad to worse after a 10-point loss to a depleted Warriors side. This is just the third time in the NRL era that Parramatta have started the season with just two wins after 11 rounds. They remain firmly at the bottom of the ladder after coming into 2018 as top 4 hopefuls. A further blow to their side is the loss of Beau Scott with a season ending knee injury. It’s not going to be any easier for them tonight as they face a Broncos side fresh off a thrilling six-point victory over the Roosters. On a positive note for Parramatta fans, they have won the past two matches over the Broncos, which includes a win at Suncorp Stadium last time they met. The past five matches between these sides have been won by double figure margins and we think the Broncos will win convincingly tonight.
For players of total match points, these matches tend to be high scoring affairs when they face each other. In the past six matches, only one occasion has failed to top 40 points, which includes a total of 86 points last time they met.
Best Bet: Brisbane 13+ (Margin) @ $2.60
Value Bet: Brisbane / Over 46.5 Points (hd2Hd / OverUnder Double)
Raiders v Sea Eagles
The Sea Eagles recorded back-to-back wins with their 24-4 win over the Storm, which also saw the most points Manly have ever scored against the Storm in Melbourne. This win gave Manly their first away victory of the season and just the second in their past 12 away matches. Casualties from last weekend will see no Dylan Walker for six weeks due to a fractured eye socket and Apisai Koroisau will miss this week due to suspension. The Raiders went down to the Dragons 25-18. What’s concerning for the Raiders is their inability to close out games. We have seen them in five of their seven losses this season leading or level at the 65th minute and lost it from there. Manly have won the past three matches against the Raiders, which includes their 16-point win back in Round 4. They also don’t mind travelling to GIO Stadium as they have only lost one match in their past seven visits to the venue. This season, the Raiders have won three and lost three at home.
Jordan Rapana has four tries in 11 games this season. Keep an eye on him tonight as he loves facing the Sea Eagles. Rapana has scored six tries in his past four matches against them. This includes one double and a hat-trick!
Best Bet: Raiders 1-12 (Margin) @ $3
Value Bet: Jordan Rapana to score/Raiders to win (To score + win)
Cowboys v Storm
Both sides come into this clash off the back of upset losses. The Storm went down 24-4 to the Sea Eagles in a game that saw Melbourne held tryless for just the second time at home. The storm looked disjointed in their attack and clearly missed their skipper Cameron Smith who returns from suspension. The Storm has only managed to record seven wins out of 22 games without Smith. Melbourne will be without Curtis Scott who is serving a two-game suspension. The Cowboys looked devastated in their one-point loss to Souths thanks to an Adam Reynolds penalty goal in the final minute of the game.
Melbourne have a fantastic record over the Cowboys. They have won the past seven matches which includes last year’s Grand Final. The last time the Cowboys won over the Storm was back in 2015. Melbourne’s past three wins in this matchup have been decided by 16 points or more.
Josh Addo-Carr is currently equal leader in the try scoring stakes with 12. Last season, Addo-Carr recorded a double in two of the three matches played against the Cowboys. Expect another big game from him.
Best Bet: Melbourne Storm (head to head) @ $1.65
Value Bet: Josh Addo-Carr 2+ Tries
Roosters v Titans
Central Coast Stadium
The Roosters come into this clash off the back of a controversial loss to the Broncos. The match caused an enormous debate as to whether or not Dylan Napa should have been sent off in the final stages of the game, which ultimately gave the Broncos the win. James Tedesco ran for over 200 metres for the fourth time in his past five matches. The Titans ended their five-game losing streak with their 33-26 victory over the Knights. The game also saw the most points scored for the Titans since Round 10 last season. The Roosters have had the wood over the Titans in recent times with four wins from their past five matches although they have been close affairs with three of the four wins decided by 10 points or less. Central Coast Stadium is not a favoured venue for the Roosters with only one win in the past 10 matches played there but that one win came against the Titans in 2015.
This season, Latrell Mitchell has recorded five tries in the opening 11 clashes. He has a great record against the Titans with five tries in his past three games against them. This includes a triple in the opening round clash of last season.
Best Bet: Roosters 1-12 (Margin) @ $3
Value Bet: Latrell Mitchell to score/ Roosters to win (To score and win)
Warriors v Rabbitohs
Mt Smart Stadium
New Zealand face a test of their premiership credentials when they host Souths on Saturday night.
The Warriors have traded wins and losses over the past seven weeks but are still equal second on the ladder with an 8-3 record. Last week’s win against Parramatta was brave as it was without star players Roger Tuisava-Sheck and Shaun Johnson with the latter still expected to be out this week.
That said, New Zealand has struggled against the Rabbitohs in recent years but did beat them in the opening round in Perth 32-20 which was the first sign that this kiwi outfit could be the real deal in 2018.
Souths have been one of the big improvers at 7-4 so far through 11 rounds and they pulled one out of the fire last week against the Cowboys to win 20-19 in Townsville. That was despite the fact they ran for 352 metres less than the week before against the Dragons. A big reason for that was Sam Burgess was taken off injured and his availability isn’t 100 percent for this week’s game either.
We fancy the Warriors in what should be a tough contest.
Best Bet: Warriors (Win) @ $1.85
Value Bet: David Fusitu’a (First Try Scorer)
Panthers v Dragons
It’s one versus two in a top of the table clash!
St. George Illawarra are aiming for five straight wins over Penrith for the first time in nearly a decade after previously dropping five in a row against them. The last time they met was in Round 25 last season in an epic 16-14 struggle at this venue. Matt Dufty and Paul Vaughan were the try scorers that day for the Red V
The Dragons beat a feisty Raiders outfit last week despite committing a number of errors and missing 32 tackles.
Penrith come into the match with three wins from their past four games and Nathan Cleary’s return from injury last week sparked them to success over Wests Tigers. With a game under his belt he should be far better for this game. The Panthers had a whopping 49 tackles inside the opposition 20 last week but only managed 16 points, which suggests they could be in trouble against the league’s best defence.
The advantage is definitely with the home side as Anthony Griffin’s men have won 11 of their past 12 matches, however, that one loss was against the Dragons. On that basis, we are leaning towards the visitors and are expecting a tight contest with three of the past four clashes between them resulting in single figure margins.
Best Bet: St. George Illawarra (Win) @ $1.73
Value Bet: Dragons by 4 Points (Exact Margin)
Knights v Sharks
McDonald Jones Stadium
The in-form Cronulla Sharks are looking to continue their streak as the league’s hottest team when they travel to the Hunter this Sunday afternoon.
Shane Flanagan’s side are on a five-game winning run which is their best streak since notching 15 straight wins in their premiership season (2016). Interestingly, Cronulla has won all five of those matches by narrow margins at an average of 4.2 points.
The Sharks beat Canterbury 22-16 and had the second highest completions of any team in Round 11 at 85 percent with only Newcastle (86 percent) bettering it. Their goal line defence was also strong as the Bulldogs were tackled inside the red zone on 32 occasions.
Newcastle’s great start to the season is slowly coming undone and it hasn’t been helped by the absence of Mitchell Pearce. Without him the team continues to try its heart out but have now dropped three straight and while points haven’t really been the problem, the defence has. In their three successive losses, Newcastle has conceded an average of 32.6 points per game.
You have to go with Cronulla simply because they’ve been hit hard by injury but continue to find ways to win matches.
Best Bet: Cronulla (Win) @ $1.50
Value Bet: Cronulla 1-12 (Margin) @ $3.10
Tigers v Bulldogs
Wests Tigers are hoping to avoid a fifth defeat in six games this afternoon.
Ivan Cleary’s side have won just once in the past four weeks and after being one of the hottest teams in the opening six rounds of the competition, have fallen a little flat since. Admittedly, two of those recent defeats have been against teams currently inside the top four so this assignment against the Bulldogs looks slightly easier.
Last week the Tigers were held tryless against the Panthers and proved to be their own worst enemies. They missed 36 tackles, made just one line break and were forced to make 49 tackles inside their own red zone.
Canterbury is now off to one of their worst openings to a season in club history and with just three wins are in 14th spot on the ladder. Despite their poor winning strike rate, Dean Pay’s men haven’t been totally outclassed with five of their past six losses being by eight points or less.
The key to this match could lay in the head-to-head stats where the Bulldogs have dominated the merged outfit in recent years, winning nine of the past 12. Wests Tigers did win their previous encounter though.
We are going for the Tigers simply because they have shown a bit more in attack than what the Bulldogs have plus they are one of the best defensive sides in the competition.
Best Bet: Wests Tigers (win) @ $1.62
Value Bet: Canterbury / Wests Tigers (half-full double)