This Weekend's 5 Best Bets
This weekend's best bets cover the NRL, AFL and Premier League.
AFL – Sydney v Adelaide
The Tip: Adelaide
Why: The underdog has won five of the last six night matches between Sydney and Adelaide. The Crows upset the Swans at the SCG in round 4 last season where they were despised outsiders and will be longing to continue the theme. The Swans will need to break a poor run of form at their home ground where they lost four of their past five.
AFL – Port Adelaide v Carlton
The Tip: Port Adelaide 1-39
Why: The Power couldn’t have been more impressive in defeating the Demons last week, holding last year’s preliminary finalists scoreless in the final term as they ran away to a 26-point victory. The Blues have lost their last two games against the Power in Adelaide by a combined 193-points and while we don’t think it will be anywhere near a triple figure belting, the Power should be too strong at home.
NRL – Penrith Panthers v Melbourne Storm
The Tip: Storm -4
Why: All signs are pointing towards one outcome here. Penrith has only won two of their last 19 matches against the Storm. Melbourne has won its opening three rounds in 5 of the last 7 years. The margin looks a good option for extra value - in the Storm’s last 10 matches, their average winning margin has been 9.5 points.
Premier League – Brighton v Southampton
The Tip: Both teams to score
Why: Only Arsenal and Chelsea have prevented Southampton from scoring away from home in their last six matches, and considering 63% of their games this season have seen both teams score, $2.10* looks fairly generous.
Brighton’s BTTS rate is a healthy 59%, and last kept a clean sheet against The Saints in 2012, so this is certainly worth keeping an eye on.
NRL – South Sydney Rabbitohs v Gold Coast Titans
The Tip: Rabbitohs half time / full time
Why: The Titans will need a rapid improvement if they want to shock Souths. A limp 21-0 loss at home to Canberra was followed by another disappointing 20-6 loss away to Cronulla. Meanwhile, South’s attack has been the most productive in the NRL this year, scoring 60 points over their first 2 games.