New South Wales head to Suncorp Stadium looking for a rare Origin series clean sweep on Wednesday night.
The Blues have already wrapped up the series with wins in Melbourne and Sydney but getting the result in Queensland is something that they have struggled with in recent years. In fact, NSW has only won two of their past 11 fixtures at the ground.
Coach Brad Fittler has pretty much kept to the same formula that won Game II at ANZ Stadium with Matt Prior making way for Dragons enforcer Tariq Sims. There is also some doubt on skipper Boyd Cordner but from all reports he is likely to take his place on the field.
His counterpart Kevin Walters, however, has been forced into a number of changes either due to injury or disappointing performances stemming from the two losses his side has suffered this season.
Queensland will be missing the brilliant Kalyn Ponga who is out injured and that is a huge blow to them because out of all their players in Game II, he looked to be the one most likely to get them over the line in Sydney.
Captain Greg Inglis is out with a thumb injury so that opens the door for champion fullback Billy Slater to captain the side in his final Origin match. Corey Oates comes into the side for Inglis, with Dane Gagai shifting into the centres.
Arguably the biggest change for Walters is the re-introduction of Daly Cherry-Evans at half in place of Ben Hunt, who now finds himself on the bench.
Going on what we have seen in the opening two matches, it is hard to find a reason to back Queensland other than the fact they have had the wood on New South Wales at Suncorp.
Slater was causing all sorts of havoc early on in Game II but faded out of the match after 25 minutes. If they are to score the upset then they need his involvement to be up again because he was instrumental in putting the Queenslanders up 10-nil early in that particular match.
Again, the battle of the forwards will be all important and it is hard to believe that David Klemmer only played 36 minutes in Game II because he was again the most effective metre eater for the Blues. He made 86 metres in nine carries – the best metre/carry ratio of any forward in the match.
If Klemmer is given more game time and Sims is used effectively by Fittler then the Blues will give halves James Maloney and Nathan Cleary a great platform from which to build on.
Brad Fittler’s side has an excellent chance to become just the third NSW team to win a series 3-0 with the dead-rubber being in Brisbane. Sweeps are hard to come by though and that counts for both teams because previously there has been 17 chances for a side to win 3-0 and yet it has only happened on seven occasions.
The last series sweep was in 2010 but you have to go all the way back to 2000 to find the last time NSW won all three matches but we are banking on them to create their own slice of history here.
Best Bet: New South Wales (Win) @ $1.67
Value Bet: NSW 1-12 (Margin)