Which player will be the first to cross the line in Game III of State Of Origin this Wednesday night?
Betting on the First Try Scorer is the second most popular bet type outside of Head-to-Head and definitely represents some juicy odds if you can find the right player to back.
Logic would tell you that having a few dollars on an outside back tips the odds in your favour – and you would be correct if you follow that logic. Of the 12 tries scored in Games I and II of this series, 11 have been scored by outside backs with Boyd Cordner’s penalty try at ANZ Stadium being the only four-pointer by a forward.
Delving deeper into these stats and 10 of those 11 tries have come from wingers or centres with James Tedesco (Game I) the only fullback to score so far in 2018.
Having a punt on a winger or centre is the way to go especially when looking at the 2017 series where 14 of the 16 tries scored across the three games were courtesy of outside backs.
There are four players we have whittled it down to – Latrell Mitchell, Josh Addo-Carr, Valentine Holmes and Dane Gagai.
Mitchell has been an obvious attacking threat for the Blues and coach Brad Fittler has definitely identified something down his side of the field because the talented centre has seen a fair bit of the attack come his way in Games I and II, where he has scored in each of his first two games.
Addo-Carr also has two tries in as many Origins and his speed and finishing makes him an obvious choice in this bet type, however, it doesn’t always work out that way for wingers. Look at Blake Ferguson, who played seven Origins and failed to get a four-pointer.
Interestingly both Mitchell and Addo-Carr are yet to score the first try so maybe it will be third time lucky for one of them on Wednesday?
Holmes was First Try Scorer in Game II and has scored in four straight Origin matches. The 22-year-old has six in four career games for the Maroons and is $11 to bag the first try on Wednesday.
Gagai’s strike rate is just as impressive as his teammate’s – nine tries in nine games!
He has been shifted to the centres to cover for Greg Inglis but his reputation at this level is such that the $15 on offer for him to be first to score a try is definitely worth having something on.
So in our opinion it’s down to those four players with our best bet being Josh Addo-Carr who scored the last try for the Blues in Game I and their first in Game II after the side trailed 10-nil.
Best Bet: Josh Addo-Carr @ $10
Value Bet: Dane Gagai @ $15