Brisbane’s defeat at City was their third in five games as they conceded at least three times in each of these losses. As a result, they’ve slipped down from the top of the table to third, but will look to get back to winning ways here as they host Sydney. Last season’s runners-up looked set to pick up their first win in eight games when they were 2-0 up at the Mariners but they let their lead slip and had to settle for a 2-2 draw, meaning that they remain down in 7th.
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While Brisbane have lost three of their last five games, each of these defeats came on the road and they remain the best home team in the division. Their record at the Suncorp Stadium this term is W9-D2-L1, with their sole defeat coming against the in-form Adelaide. They’ve led at the break in half of these 12 matches but managed just four clean sheets and as a result 10 had more than two goals and six had more than three, including each of their last five. When hosting sides between 4th and 7th this campaign they’re W4-D0-L1 with that defeat against Adelaide as three of their four clean sheets came in these matches, but they only led at the break in two.
Sydney have struggled for goals this season as their tally of 30 strikes in 24 games is better only than the Jets and Mariners. Whilst they managed six clean sheets in their opening nine games, they’ve failed to keep any in their last 10 and it’s for this reason that results have slipped. Their away record this term is W3-D6-L3, though two of these wins came in their first two road matches of the season. They haven’t kept a clean sheet in any of their last nine on the road and haven’t scored more than twice in any of these matches. However, when travelling to top four sides this term, while they’re record is a fairly ordinary W1-D2-L2 with defeats at Adelaide and City in addition to a loss at the champions, both teams have scored in four of these five games and all five saw at least three goals.
Considering Brisbane’s excellent home record and Sydney’s lack of form, the home team look a decent price at Evens but three defeats in their last five is a slight concern, particularly after their captain Matt McKay received a late international call-up. Instead, the best bet in this one looks to be backing goals as Sydney’s road games against the top teams tend to produce high-scoring games, whilst nine of Brisbane’s last 10 matches had more than three goals.