This is a clash of two in-form teams as Perth have won nine of their last 10 whilst City have five wins in six as both are safely through to the Finals but are jostling for positon. City top the table heading into this week while Perth are just four points back in 5th. Should Perth win both their remaining games then a top-two finish is certainly a possibility, while a pair of decent results should be enough for City, although they will no doubt want to finish top of the regular season standings.
Perth’s dominance in recent weeks is exemplified by the fact that they’ve led at the break in eight of their last 10 and also scored at least twice in eight of these matches. Their record at the nib Stadium is W7-D3-L2 with four of those wins coming in their last four games as they also led at the break in each of these wins. Their record when hosting top-four sides is W2-D2-L1 with their only defeat coming against Adelaide. Both teams found the net in all five of these games with each seeing at least four goals.
With their 3-0 win over the Phoenix, City scored at least three times for the 12th time in 25 games this season as their matches have now seen exactly 100 goals. However, the big surprise in recent weeks has been their improvement defensively as they’ve kept three clean sheets in their last four, this after managing just one in their 21 games prior to that. Their away record is W4-D3-L5 with four of those defeats coming in their last six road games, but they ended that run with their second win at Adelaide this season in their last away game. Indeed, the Jets and Mariners are the only other sides they’ve beaten on the road this season as their record at top-half sides is W2-D2-L2. Both teams found the net in five of these games and there were 24 goals in these six matches.
We expect this one to be full of goals as well, as do the bookmakers with both teams to score as short as 1.4 and Over 2.5 Goals just 1.45. However, six of Perth’s last seven at home had more than three goals, as have five of City’s last eight on the road and as a result we’re backing Over 3.5 Goals.
Recommendation: Over 3.5 Goals at 2.1
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