Arsenal may have won their last two at the Emirates by an aggregate score of 9-2, but away from home they’ve managed just the single win in their last six, losing their last two road trips at Bournemouth and Swansea. They’ve also lost six of eight winless away matches to their fellow top-six sides since the start of last season, and so we expect them to struggle when visiting a Spurs side that’s taken four points from their last two matches against Man Utd and Liverpool.
In particular, the Gunners have struggled at the back in these types of games, conceding at least three times in half of those eight trips to top-six teams. Their opponents have won by at least two clear goals in five of the last six of these, while Spurs have been in excellent goal-scoring form at Wembley recently, netting 19 times in their last six there. In fact, Pochettino’s men have covered the -1 handicap in five of their last seven when hosting top-six sides. Four of these games finished 2-0, including in this fixture last term.
Harry Kane has 10 goals in his last eight games and is unsurprisingly the favourite to get on the scoresheet. However, we think he still represents decent value as he holds a fantastic record in the North London derby. He’s managed six goals in as many top-flight encounters with the Gunners and given the visitors defensive struggles in big games it would be a surprise if the England international didn’t extend his already impressive head-to-head record.