Most people would say Melbourne City has been the better team in Melbourne this season, especially considering the dramas surrounding Melbourne Victory’s ups and downs. But if Victory were to win this derby then Kevin Muscat’s side would remarkably climb to within one point of their crosstown rivals and there are trends starting to form that suggest that might be the case. City has lost its last two games, conceding six goals, while Victory has scored seven goals in its last three games (two in the Asian Champions League) including last week’s convincing win against Adelaide. Melbourne City won the first derby game in rd2 but have never won more than two in the same season. We think that will be the case again with a Melbourne Victory win.
This game has goals in it. The most recent Melbourne derby (1-0 to Victory) was one out of the box for these two sides as the previous seven derbies had seen both teams score at least once. Victory has only kept four clean sheets this season. City hasn’t kept a clean sheet since January 21.
Best Bet: Both teams to score @ $1.61
Value Bet: Besart Berisha (Victory) to score a goal @ $2.45
McDonald Jones Stadium
They’ve clearly been the best two sides for most of the competition and now punters get a clash between potential Grand Finalists Newcastle and Sydney FC. The Sky Blues are favourites and why wouldn’t they be? They’ve collected the most points on the road (25), have the best attack in away fixtures (avg 2.2 goals per game) and have conceded a ridiculous four goals in their travels! Sydney is our tip to win. They have a mental edge over Newcastle having gone 15 games against them without defeat.
Sydney has had an incredible knack of scoring goals in their past six games against Newcastle. To be precise it’s two goals each time they’ve played dating back to January 2016 with the 2-nil scoreline coming up in four of their six encounters during that time while Milos Ninkovic has netted in five straight games against the Jets. Newcastle has been outscored by Sydney 12-3 in their past six clashes.
Best Bet: Sydney FC to win @ $2
Value Bet: Sydney FC 2-0 (Correct Score) @ $10
This could be a huge blow for Brisbane’s finals chances if they can’t solve Adelaide at Suncorp Stadium. John Aloisi’s side are the worst home team in the A-league and have taken just eight points from 12 matches, while on the flip side, Adelaide is ranked fourth in the competition for points picked up on the road (17). On that basis alone it is hard to go past Adelaide to win but they’ve won just one away fixture in their past three.
You have to go back five matches to find a draw in this fixture, however, with plenty to play for we think that’s the way to go. For those looking at goal scorer markets, Italian hitman Massimo Maccarone has scored two goals in as many games against Adelaide this season and is our tip for to be first goal scorer.
Best Bet: Draw @ $3.50
Value Bet: Massimo Maccarone (Brisbane) First Goal Scorer @ $5
Spanish striker Oriol Riera is shaping as one of the best bets of the weekend as his Wanderers face off against Perth on Sunday. Riera is riding a five-game scoring streak while he has registered the first goal at his past three matches against the likes of Wellington, Newcastle and Sydney FC. The case for the Wanderers leading striker, who has collected 11 goals for the season, gets even stronger when you consider he has faced Perth twice and netted twice against them including the opener when these teams met at Spotless Stadium back in October.
Back Riera to score the first goal and for an insurance bet, have something on him to score at any time. Result players should look to a Wanderers win here with Perth losing the most away games in the league (9) and collecting just seven points in road fixtures this season.
Best Bet: Western Sydney to win @ $1.91
Value Bet: Oriol Riera (Western Sydney) First Goal Scorer @ $4.50