Rd 25 A-League Preview & Betting Tips
We’re getting down to the pointy end of the season now with just a few regular rounds left.
Perth v Sydney FC
Sydney FC has a staggering record against Perth throughout the course of the A-League. Only four times in 18 games at nib Stadium have the Sky Blues actually lost to the Glory. Perth has not recorded a win against Sydney since February 13, 2016. Sydney has won all eight games since, scoring a staggering 28 goals to two in that time. If you’re a history buff, you know where your money is going this week. What’s more, Perth must back up after a four-day break following its hard-fought 1-0 win over Melbourne Victory on Sunday.
What cannot be ignored is what is on the line for Perth this week. The eighth-placed Glory are currently just one point out of the playoff spots and a win against Sydney would temporarily lift them above both Western Sydney and Brisbane in to sixth. The Glory has also hit a bit of form recently, winning three of their last four games and drawing the other, while Sydney’s unconvincing late 2-1 win over Central Coast snapped a two-match losing streak. Sydney has bigger fish to fry than this coming up, so despite the weight of history being against it, surely Perth can keep its winning run going and, in the process, keep its finals hopes alive with a win.
Best Bet: Under 2.5 goals (over/under) @ $2.45
Value bet: Perth win @ $4
Adelaide v Wellington
Adelaide just has to win here. Wellington put up an improved showing against Brisbane last weekend, nabbing a 2-2 draw against the finals aspirant. But the fact remains that the Phoenix have little to play for, while Adelaide – not secured in the top six – is still chasing a top four spot and the home elimination final that goes with it.
This is a third Friday night home game in a row for the Reds and while the 1-1 draw against Melbourne City two weeks ago was hard-fought, their 5-2 demolition over the previously high-flying Newcastle was simply breathtaking. If Marco Kurz’s side can take that form into the last three weeks and finals there is not one team in the top six that will want to face them. And it’s safe to say that Wellington, with its decidedly poor defensive record this season – its 49 goals conceded is the worst in the A-League – will not be relishing the prospect of holding Adelaide out if last week’s form is any guide.
Best Bet: Adelaide/Adelaide (half-time/full-time double) @ $2.30
Value bet: Adelaide -2.75 (Asian Handicap) @ $6.25
Brisbane Roar v Central Coast Mariners
What a great opportunity for the Brisbane Roar to continue their push towards the finals when they host Central Coast on Saturday. John Aloisi’s men came into this round just a point off the sixth-placed Wanderers and a win here will keep them in the hunt. The Roar hasn’t lost to the Mariners in their past 11 clashes!
Making the Roar an even stronger betting proposition is the fact their recent wins have all been against top six opposition including Sydney FC, Adelaide and Melbourne Victory. Central Coast has clocked off and with the departure of coach Paul Okon and have nothing to play for. They have won just once on the road this season.
Brett Holman is our pick for a bit of value in First Goal Scorer markets. He registered in last week’s 2-2 draw against Wellington and scored against the Mariners the last time they met on January 27.
Best Bet: Brisbane Roar to Win @ $1.65
Value bet: Brett Holman First Goal Scorer @ $6
Melbourne Victory v Western Sydney Wanderers
Things aren’t looking good for Western Sydney as they head south to play the Victory on Saturday night. The Wanderers are on a seven-game winless streak against the Victory that includes four losses in their past six clashes.
Making their task all that much harder is the fact Western Sydney haven’t won in Melbourne, against the Victory or City, in eight trips.
The Victory had their run of three straight wins in the competition cut down by Perth in a surprising 1-nil loss last week, however, they seem to enjoy playing against the Wanderers and are our tip here.
With the Wanderers coming off a 3-nil defeat to City last week, that particular scorline is our value bet as it has come up in three of the past six games they have faced the Melbourne Victory.
Best Bet: Melbourne Victory to Win @ $1.70
Value bet: Melbourne Victory 3-0 (Correct Score) @ $13
Newcastle Jets v Melbourne City
McDonald Jones Stadium
Newcastle’s bid for the Premiers Plate is effectively over after they suffered a 5-2 loss to Adelaide last week. Ernie Merrick’s side has had to deal with player injuries, departures and suspensions but we still fancy them to get the job done here.
Melbourne City scored their best win of the season when knocking off the Wanderers 3-nil last week but they haven’t been the best road team going around, scoring on just 17 occasions in 11 matches and conceding 16 on their travels. Newcastle is the only team in the league to have scored in every match they’ve played this season which means City need at least two goals if they are to win here.
The value here will be in the Correct Score market and the 2-1 result for either side is a logical choice going on their recent encounters. In their past six clashes the 2-1 result has come up four times with each side winning twice.
Best Bet: Newcastle to Win @ $2.25
Value Bet: Newcastle 2-1 (Correct Score) & Melb City 2-1 (Correct Score) @ $8.50 & $9 respectively