Sides that have lost the first away leg of a Champions League tie 3-0 this century in fact have an impressive record in the return as they’ve won five of six unbeaten games, but none have been able to overturn the deficit, with a pair of 2-0 victories the closest anyone’s come. Nonetheless, with City forced to go on the offensive they look a fair price for the win.
City have been emphatic in victory when hosting their nearest rivals in the league as they’ve won by an aggregate of 13-2 in their four clashes against top-six opponents ahead of the visit of Man Utd on the weekend. However, the most recent of these was a 1-0 win over an obdurate Chelsea side and we expect something similar here – Jurgen Klopp has twice taken a lead from the first home leg of a European knockout tie: Dortmund went down 2-0 at the Bernabeu after winning the first leg by three goals, whilst his Liverpool side drew 1-1 at Old Trafford on the way to the Europa League final having managed a 2-0 win at Anfield. As a result, we’re expecting a cagey affair so Under 2.5 Goals looks excellent value.
If they are to overturn this deficit then it’s likely that Sergio Aguero will play a big hand on his return from injury. He’s already got three hat-tricks in the league this season and has four goals in his six Champions League appearances. Furthermore, in six home games against Liverpool in the league he’s never failed to score and looks worth a few dollars to open the scoring.