Southampton nearly managed to salvage their first point in three games, but a late Arsenal comeback ended those hopes. However, they have held on for points against Spurs and Arsenal at home this term while they also managed a draw at Old Trafford and have only conceded more than twice once in their last 20 at St. Mary’s as they’ve almost always been competitive. Chelsea, meanwhile, are on a terrible run having lost their last three away games and now have almost no hope of making the top four. Their problems go further back as they’ve actually won just two of their last nine on the road, during which time they’ve lost at the likes of West Ham and Watford.
With confidence and focus sorely lacking from Antonio Conte’s side, it looks set to be another tough away day for the Blues. Furthermore, in the previous five seasons bottom-six teams have gone an impressive W13-D8-L14 when hosting sides that went on to finish 5th-10th between April and the end of the season. Chelsea are obviously at the top end of that sample but we fancy Saints to hold out for another draw.
The arrival of Mark Hughes seems to have energised the Saints as they’ve posed a greater threat going forward, but this has come at the expense of their defence. Chelsea are hardly defending well either though and with four of their last five away games seeing more than two goals we could be in for a few goals at both ends.
Alvaro Morata has been one of the sharper looking Chelsea players since his return from injury as he’s registered two goals and an assist across his last three outings in all competitions. Each of these contributions led to the opener, and as he looks to work his way back into contention for Spain’s World Cup squad he might be worth backing in the coming weeks.