Liverpool left Roma with some hope after conceding two late goals in a thrilling first leg at Anfield. Sides that have lost the first away leg of a Champions League knockout tie by two or more goals in fact have an impressive record in the return since 2009/10, going W17-D1-L9, with eight of those defeats coming against one of the Big Three in Bayern, Real or Barca. Included within those results was Roma’s own 3-0 win over Barca and whilst it would be a huge ask to repeat the trick and qualify, Di Francesco’s men look a fair price for the win.
While Liverpool won at City when protecting a big lead in the last round, it could have been a very different story had Sane’s goal before half-time not been disallowed as City would have had a 2-0 lead. Roma are yet to concede a goal in five Champions League home games this term, despite hosting the likes of Atletico, Chelsea and Barca, though the Spanish giants were not their usual selves while the other two are not the same force going forward as Klopp’s charges. Liverpool have only failed to score once in their last nine and it’s difficult to see them drawing a blank with Firmino and Salah in such great form, and with that in mind Roma and both teams to score appears the likely outcome.
Edin Dzeko kicked off Roma’s mini revival at the end of the first leg, whilst he also opened the scoring against Barca as he bullied their centre-backs throughout. He now has four goals in his last four appearances in this competition, while Liverpool’s backline and in particular Dejan Lovren have been culpable of some criminal defensive mistakes at times.