EPL Saturday Night Best Bets - Matchweek 5
Fulham v Watford - 9:30pm
Aleksandar Mitrovic has scored 24 goals for club and country in 2018, and is Fulham’s go-to goalscorer. The Serbian striker has scored four Premier League goals already this season, and has looked strong and threatening whenever he has played.
While he was mainly feeding off scraps against Manchester City, he will be right back in the melee against Watford, and is $2.90* to score at any time against the Hornets.
Cardiff v Man CIty - 12:00am
Manchester City won both halves against Arsenal, Huddersfield and Fulham this season, and it could be a similar story against Cardiff. This is a market which is always surprisingly good value, and this weekend is no different.
With the volume of goals City score – 14 already this campaign – it’s always worth considering this market; Cardiff’s lack of goals is also a factor to consider here.
Man City to win both halves is a good value bet.
Liverpool v Southampton - 12:00am
There is some value in backing Liverpool winning to nil. The Reds have conceded just twice this season – after three consecutive clean sheets – and I don’t see this Southampton side causing Virgil Van Dijk and co. any serious problems.
With Liverpool, there is always that underlying risk of giving away a silly, needless goal – like they did against Tottenham – but those moments are becoming increasingly infrequent. Alisson was far happier clearing the ball long after his Leicester debacle, while Van Dijk has transformed this Liverpool defence into a well-drilled machine.
$1.90* looks like great value for this one, particularly because Liverpool are yet to concede at home.
Man Utd v Wolves - 12:00am
It would perhaps be a little harsh to call Wolves a banana skin – especially considering they drew with Man City – but this Wolves side can, and will, cause United serious problems. It’s up to the home side to nullify them
This said, Wolves’ failure to convert more than one chance against Burnley – they had 30 (!) shots – is a slight concern; anything less than total ruthlessness in front of goal and United will punish them, like they did Watford.
United look to have regrouped after their poor start, and are expected to continue their current run of form against Wolves, hence we're going for Manchester United to win at Old Trafford.
Brighton v Spurs - 2:30am
The Seagulls – who have also knocked three past Manchester United this season – have drawn their last two games, both times coming from 2-0 down. While this resilience will greatly please Brighton fans, Chris Hughton will not be happy with going behind in four of their five matches so far.
Brighton will go into this as the more confident side, and I see them getting another positive home result on Saturday. They are unbeaten in their last four home games against the top six (beating Arsenal, United, United again and drawing with Spurs) and have lost just once on their own turf since January.
I backed a Brighton/draw double chance against Manchester United and it landed, so I am going to do exactly the same for the match against Tottenham.