EPL Saturday Night Best Bets - Matchweek 23
Wolves vs. Leicester – 11:30pm
Wolves and Leicester City are two of the stranger sides in the Premier League.
Both have registered brilliant recent victories against the top six – Spurs and Chelsea in Wolves’ case; Chelsea and Manchester City for Leicester – but their respective form against the sides around them has been really poor.
The Foxes have succumbed to back-to-back home defeats against Cardiff and ten-man Southampton, while Wolves’ most recent Molineux outing ended in a 2-0 defeat to Crystal Palace.
But if there’s one thing these two sides have in common, it’s producing fairly dull footballing spectacles.
Just 32% of Wolves matches (27% at home) have seen over 2.5 goals scored, while the figure for Leicester is a larger (though still fairly measly) 41% - and just 36% on the road.
Considering Wolves’ continued struggles to break down sides who are happy to sit back themselves – a little like Leicester under Claude Puel – backing under 2.5 goals looks a no-brainer.
Southampton vs Everton – 2:00am
Southampton and Everton have the joint-third-highest Both team to score rate in the Premier League with 59%, but more encouragingly, Southampton’s number shoots up to 70% when playing at St. Mary’s.
The Saints have conceded at least two goals in their last five home matches, while it’s been over two years since a fixture between Southampton and Everton has seen a clean sheet.
Arsenal vs. Chelsea – 4:30am
Chelsea has won just one of their last six visits to The Emirates in all competitions, but neither side has shown much semblance of consistency in recent months.
Though the Blues have won seven of their 10 away games this season, Spurs are the only top six side they’ve faced – and subsequently lost to convincingly - so although their record on the road is strong, I still don’t think it’ll be enough to carry them to victory.
Backing a straight Arsenal win is tough, purely because they’re a wholly unreliable side, but they have a good record against Chelsea at home, and their Emirates form convinces me far more than Chelsea’s recent scrappy wins away at Brighton, Watford and Crystal Palace.