Burton v Man City Tips & Preview
Burton's heroic path to redemption starts here!
In perhaps the most pointless football match of all time – where an 8-0 victory would see Burton Albion crash out of the EFL Cup – I’ve still dug out some value.
Manchester City’s 9-0 first-leg triumph made me feel a little empty inside, but I’m expecting Burton to show a little more backbone and resilience on Wednesday in front of their own fans – all totally in vain, of course.
With the Premier League and Champions League City’s clear priority, the likes of Sergio Aguero or Fernandinho are unlikely to be sighted, although with such a large, talented squad at his disposal, Pep Guardiola will still field a competitive XI.
For reference, City’s line-up for their first-round clash with Oxford United still contained John Stones, Nicolas Otamendi, Vincent Kompany, David Silva, Gabriel Jesus and Riyad Mahrez, so expect similar on Wednesday. There is simply no way Pep will throw away their recent goalscoring momentum by allowing his players to take their foot off the gas, making another comfortable City victory pretty much a shoe-in.
Considering they have 22 goals in their last four matches, backing an away win with a -2 handicap looks like a great proposition. For me, it’s worth staking a little more here than backing a slightly higher handicap.
Next up, I’m backing there to be under 10.5 corners in the match.
In City’s last two matches against lower-league opposition – Burton in the first-leg and Rotherham in the FA Cup – under 11 corners were awarded in each.
Considering Burton are unlikely to earn more than a couple of corners, the burden naturally rests on City’s shoulders to get the tally near the dreaded 11 mark.
Despite having 28 shots against the Brewers at the Etihad, City won themselves just seven corners; their patient style of play against the smaller sides is clearly not massively conducive to winning corner kicks.
I’m ending with exactly the same longshot as the first-leg: Manchester City to win 4-0, at a massive $11; if you don’t succeed, and all that…
I perhaps underestimated City’s capacity to totally blow Burton away at the Etihad last time out, but 4-0 looks like a more realistic prospect for Wednesday considering Burton’s home ‘advantage’ and City’s likely rotation – however minor that may be.
Trying to predict just how many City will score is a bit of a coin toss, but $11 is a massive price for one of the more likely outcomes.