EPL Saturday Night Best Bets - Matchweek 30
Crystal Palace vs. Brighton
Crystal Palace v Brighton is always an intense affair – the hatred runs deep. Albion finally avenged their 2013 Championship play-off semi-final defeat against Crystal Palace back in December, where Chris Hughton’s men recorded a stunning 3-1 victory despite being down to 10 men for a huge portion of the match.
The Seagulls are now three points behind Palace with a game in hand, but have just one win at Selhurst Park in 34 years; not the sort of record you want against your biggest rivals, although it would be a fantastic time for them to get one over on over on Palace considering their precarious position in the table.
There certainly is hope for Brighton: Palace has the second-worst home record in the league – earning just 13 points from their 14 matches at Selhurst, scoring just 10 goals in the process.
But the bad news for the Seagulls is they have just eight away points all season and look unlikely to earn any more. There’s a sense that all of Brighton’s away games are write-offs, and their survival will hinge on a few key home clashes.
My first tip (and it pains me to write this as a Brighton fan) is a Palace win. Albion’s record at Selhurst Park is dreadful, and they just seem to hit a brick wall when playing on the road. Their win against Huddersfield was massive, but Palace have lost just one of their last eight matches, and I think they’ll have enough for this travel-sick Seagulls side.
Southampton v Tottenham
Champions League rear-guard effort against Borussia Dortmund was outstanding, but a lot of energy and effort would’ve been expelled on Wednesday Morning, and I can see The Saints taking advantage.
Southampton has scored in their last nine home matches – impressive considering Manchester United, Manchester City and Arsenal (ok, not so much) visited in this time. They also have the second-highest Both Teams to Score rate at home in the league (71%), while eight of Spurs’ 15 away trips have met the same fate.