Germany don’t often falter in the group stages at major tournaments, and in fact Joachim Loew has overseen a run of seven wins from nine unbeaten games at this stage since Euro 2012, while he saw his side shut-out the opposition in five of the last six of these.
Mexico have never beaten Germany in a competitive fixture, with the world champions winning their last such meeting 4-1 in the Confederations Cup last summer with what essentially amounted to their B team.
While Die Mannschaft shouldn’t have too many problems overcoming Mexico, El Tri will certainly be looking to keep things tight with more winnable games to come. That 4-1 defeat is likely to prove an anomaly, with Mexico enjoying a respectable W3-D7-L2 record against teams we rank in the top 10 since the start of the 2015 Copa America, though given only two of these were against top-five sides we doubt they’ll hold out here.
Indeed, Germany have won seven matches against teams ranked between 10th and 20th since the start of Euro 2012, with five of these by a just single goal margin. Three of the last four of these were 1-0 victories and given the Germans’ impressive defensive record in competitive fixtures, the 1-0 correct score looks an excellent price.
Mario Gotze fired Germany to victory in Rio, but neither he nor those who led the line at Euro 2016 were perfect for the role. This time around he has an in-form specialist in the shape of 22-year-old Timo Werner, and with eight goals in his last nine international starts we’re surprised to see him at odds-against to register another.