After two years of heartbreak and two sackings England fans can finally forget about Harry Kane taking corners in France. That defeat against Iceland was England’s only defeat in their last 20 internationals against teams we have ranked at 26-50 in the world. However, with just a 60% win rate in those games the value must be on the North Africans here, though we’d advise taking them on the handicap because of their own impotence up top.
What can we expect from England? It would be a shock if they suddenly started playing open, adventurous football, even if this team aren’t as scarred by past failures as recent squads have been. England scored a brace against each of Costa Rica and Nigeria in the warm-ups but before that they’d netted just four times in six games stretching back to the home win against Slovenia last October as four games finished with Under 1.5 Goals. Backing up the chance of a low-scoring game is Tunisia’s record of having Under 1.5 Goals in three of their last four against top-20 ranked sides.
If England are to win they’ll probably have to rely on their talismanic skipper. Kane’s looking for his 14th goal in his 25th game for England which makes him value in the Anytime Goalscorer market. However, given we’re expecting a tight one it’s worth going for the big win and backing a Harry Kane/1-0 England in the 1st Goal Scorer/Correct Score double.