With France leading Group C on six points and Denmark behind them on four, a draw would see both sides qualify in their current order and this has been reflected in the prices with the stalemate unusually short. The common perception is these two will play out a bore draw, however, history tells us that France represent excellent value. Since 1998, one side on six points and another on four points going into the final group game have met on seven occasions at World Cups and the group leaders have won five of seven unbeaten matches.
There is value to be found elsewhere as the market suggests a low scoring encounter, but these past seven matches in this situation haven’t been tight either, with both teams scoring in six and six having at least three goals and four having four or more. Denmark conceded their first goal in six against the Socceroos but none of the opposition were in the calibre of France.
Against our top-10 ranked sides they’ve conceded at least twice in six of their last eight with both teams scoring in seven, whilst the same has occurred in six of Les Bleus last eight. Furthermore, at the time of writing, when two European nations have met in the final group games at World Cups since 1990, both teams have scored in 62% of the matches compared to just 47% in the opening two group games.
France looked a lot more dangerous with Giroud as the focal point and Mbappe and Griezmann running off him, especially in the first half against Peru. Griezmann is a lot more comfortable playing behind a target man, as he does at Atletico with Diego Costa, and he has an impressive seven goals in his last eight major tournament matches. Therefore, he is our preference over Mbappe to strike first, particularly as the designated penalty taker with the Danes having already given two away.