Spain will feel relieved having edged past Iran in their last match as their opposition had a goal disallowed by VAR. They shouldn’t have so many problems in this one as Morocco have lost their opening two matches and when teams have done that at the World Cup since 1990 and are playing a side we had ranked in the top 10 they’ve gone W1-D0-L7 with six Loss/Loss doubles and three defeats by three-clear goals. Spain have now won 19 of their last 20 competitive matches against teams ranked outside the top 20, covering the -1 handicap in 11 of them and will fancy their chances against a Moroccan side who’ve lost all their last three matches against our top 15 ranked sides.
Diego Costa has been the missing link for this Spanish setup and against a Moroccan side who build from the back we expect him to use his strength to get the ball into the back of the net. With the golden boot in his sights he’ll be eager to get on the scoresheet and given he has nine goals across his last nine international starts he looks great value.
Spain have won all of their seven final group games at World Cups since 1990, with the last of these finishing 3-0, as they’ve averaged exactly three goals per game over the last six. What’s more, Morocco have failed to score in both their last two matches while Spain have scored three goals per game across their 14 matches since Euro 2016 against teams ranked outside the top 20, so we’ll take a punt on the 3-0 score.