It’s all to play for in Group H with three teams separated by just one point, but Senegal hold a slight advantage here as they just need one point to qualify while Columbia need a win unless Poland can beat Japan. Senegal will sit back and look to play on the counter while Colombia won’t want to give anything away early on, so we could be in for a cagey opening 45. Indeed, since 1990, there have been 30 final group games in African, Asian, CONCACAF Gold Cup, Copa America, Euros or World Cups, where one team was on four points and the other just three and 21 (70%) of these were level at half-time.
Colombia have won four of their last five group stage matches at Word Cups with the exception when losing a man after three minutes against Japan and none of these had as big a gulf between the two sides in our rankings as we have here. Furthermore, South American teams have a fantastic record over African nations at World Cups. Prior to Argentina facing Nigeria on Tuesday, there have been 21 such matches since 1990 and while Cameroon won the very first of those the South American’s have a W15-D5-L0 record since.
Radamel Falcao finally got his World Cup goal after missing through injury four years ago and he now has five in his last 10 starts for Colombia. He has plenty of creativity in behind him with James Rodriguez returning to the starting line-up in some style against Poland, providing two assists. After a mainly injury-free season, Falcao has looked very sharp in the first two games and he’s our pick to break the deadlock.