Australian Open Best Bets - Day 10
(16) Serena Williams vs. (7) Karolina Pliskova
The final women's quarterfinal sees Serena Williams take on Karolina Pliskova for a spot in the final four. A win for Williams could see her set up a rematch of last year’s US Open Final against Naomi Osaka with the Japanese star playing in the match prior on Rod Laver Arena. Karolina Pliskova has now reached the quarterfinal of the Australian Open for the third straight year, falling at this hurdle in the past two years but does hold a brilliant record in down under.
Over the past three seasons, Pliskova has a 24-3 record in Australia, winning titles in Brisbane this year and 2017 and even the junior title here back in 2010 but if you thought that was good Williams boasts a 54-5 record in Australia this decade. The pair have had three career meetings with Williams leading 2-1, including a straight sets win at this stage of last year’s US Open. After a dominant first set against Halep, Williams had a lull in the second and ultimately cost us out straight sets prediction. We have a feeling this match could follow a similar script and there’s value to be had in the set betting market.
Key Stat: Serena Williams has a 24-1 W/L record as a favourite at the Australian Open from 2015 onwards.
(16) Milos Raonic vs. (28) Lucas Pouille
A somewhat unlikely quarterfinal matchup but one we’re pleased to see with our Quarter 2 Winner prediction Milos Raonic looking to get back to the final four at a Grand Slam for the first time since 2016 while it’s already uncharted territory for the Frenchman.
Raonic destroyed fourth seed Alexander Zverev in the fourth round who in turn destroyed his racquet in a tantrum for the ages. Raonic’s serve has been on song this week and Pouille has struggled against the big Canadian lefty who’s won all their three career meetings in straight sets including at Melbourne Park back in 2016. We're hoping that trend will continue on Wednesday at Melbourne Park with a nice profit awaiting followers if Raonic can salute.
Key Stat: Lucas Pouille has played a first set tiebreak in each of his last three Grand Slam main draw matches. Each of Milos Raonic's last eight Grand Slam Quarter-finals have gone UNDER the total match games line.
(1) Novak Djokovic vs. (8) Kei Nishikori
Kei Nishikori had to battle back from two sets to love and was just two points away from losing the match in the fifth set super tiebreak before battling back and storming into another Grand Slam quarterfinal. His reward for winning that match is a last eight showdown with his kryptonite, Novak Djokovic who he has lost 14 consecutive matches too.
They met four times alone last year with the last three all coming in quarterfinals or beyond, with this one no different. As he did in the third round, Djokovic dropped a set but recovered in brilliant fashion to close out the match and also breaking the hearts of those Medvedev +6.5 backers. Djokovic has managed to cover the game handicap in all four of his matches during this Australian Open and looks good value to do it again with fatigue bound to effect Nishikori. The Japanese star is yet to lose this year (8-0) but has already played three five set matches at Melbourne Park out of four and is coming up against a man he hasn’t defeated in over four years.
Key Stat: Novak Djokovic has won his last 14 matches against Kei Nishikori (15-2 overall) and has covered the game handicap in his last five.