Latham's Law - Long Shot Louie

Mark Latham goes value hunting as election day looms large!

Mark Latham
Wed, 29 Jun, 12:00 AM

Good punting always relies on odds that represent value for money. Elections are no different.

Publicly, the form guide comes through the opinion polls and anecdotal evidence about the ground war in marginal seats.

From a punter’s perspective, the best thing about elections is that, in most cases, they involve a two-horse race.

If we can find good odds about candidates who are doing well "under the radar" then some of the betting propositions can be very attractive.

Our candidate only needs to beat one other "horse" for a nice collect to be banked.

With the momentum behind the Coalition in this last week, the smart money will be on upset LNP victories.

Late swings in politics can be deadly, as they occur unchecked by public expectations (in this case, the conventional wisdom that the election result will be close).

I don’t think it will be.

In my last Oddschecker bulletin I focused on the State where, more than any other, Labor is going backwards – Victoria.

I suggested three bets at very healthy odds: upset Liberal victories in Isaacs ($16 Sportsbet), McEwan ($6.50 LuxBet) and Chisholm ($3.10 UNIBET).

Previously, in my commentary on Western Sydney, I recommended keeping an eye on the Labor held seats of Greenway and Werriwa (Coalition - $9.50 William Hill).

As the momentum has swung towards the Government – with the economic uncertainty caused by Brexit and the news that the ALP is budgeting to blow out the Federal deficit – this will greatly assist the Coalition in both these seats.

Greenway and Werriwa are typical middle class, aspirational electorates, with new housing estates and plenty of mortgagees.

Economic issues are crucial, bringing upset Liberal victories into the frame: $9.50 (William Hill) in Werriwa and $3.60 (William Hill) in Greenway. The sitting Labor member in Greenway, Michelle Rowland, is at $1.44 (LuxBet).

In the closing days of this campaign, Labor is worried about Greenway in particular.

What other long-shot opportunities are there around the country?

I would suggest three investments, based on the golden rule that Labor Leftie candidates usually do poorly in non-Leftie seats.

Try these as Long Shot Louie bets:

1. The Liberals Nick Vavaris to hold Barton (NSW) after he suffered an unfavourable redistribution, turning his seat into a 4.4% Labor margin. The ALP candidate, Linda Burney, is a media darling (especially at the ABC and Fairfax) but she’s extreme Left and will struggle in socially conservative Barton. Malcolm Turnbull visited the seat on Wednesday morning – a sure sign the Liberals think they are in the hunt. Vavaris is great odds at $8.50 (LuxBet).

2. The Nationals’ Kevin Hogan is the sitting member for the northern NSW seat of Page (3.1% margin his way), running against the former Labor member he defeated three years, Janelle Saffin, trying to comeback. Saffin is scary Left, so I regard Hogan as nice value at $2.75 (LuxBet)

3. Terri Butler won the Griffith by-election following the resignation of Kevin Rudd from this south Brisbane Labor seat. But since then she has been narrowly focused on same-sex marriage and a handful of other niche Leftist issues. The Liberals are good value in Griffith (3% Labor margin on 2013 results), at $5 (Sportsbet)

One final value bet: jump on Tony Abbott at $21 (Sportsbet) to become PM again by 2019.

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