At the end of a long campaign, I am confident I have supplied punters with reliable information.
I’ve not been surprised by developments and tactics by the major parties. The campaign has unfolded much as expected.
So in this final update, please find a summary of my recommended bets.
I stand by each of the tips I have offered over the 4 weeks. I believe they offer sound value for money.
Good punting, and may the best team win.
Let politics be the winner on the day!!
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Back at the start of my Oddschecker campaign, I selected the COALITION as certainties to win this election. At the time of my first article they were $1.33, they are now a best priced $1.08 with Sportsbet to take the spoils on Saturday. They have been absolutely hammered in betting. It is hard to tip them at that price now but hopefully a few of you took the chance to earn 33% on your money for less than a month’s investment. The current odds suggest tomorrows result is a mere formality – however we only have to go back to last week and the Brexit vote, where betting markets weren’t as short, but still predicted a Remain win. This is different and doesn’t play on the emotions like the Brexit vote did.
In my second article – A Punters Guide to Polling Lingo, I came up with a tip that Pauline Hanson will be elected to the Senate. She was freely available at the time at $1.60 with Sportsbet, that has trimmed in considerably with Australia’s biggest bookmaker, to be $1.35. She looks a long, long odds-on shot to make an appearance in the Senate. $1.35 could still be good value.
INDIVIDUAL SEAT BETTING
Oddschecker have done a great job catering for all the individual seat betting, allowing Aussie punters some great opportunities to invest. Whilst Political betting does tend to revolve around short priced runners, sometimes there is astonishing value to be had if you shop well – and Oddschecker assist the punter greatly in this role.
We tipped Labor in EDEN MONARO (NSW) in article 2, when you could get $1.80. They have been the medium of very strong support and are into $1.35 with Sportsbet. That is a very good go on a seat where it was neck and neck in betting up until a few weeks ago. It is definitely a bellwether seat, but Labor are strongly fancied to win it, I can’t see this influencing the outright sworn in Government winner – which will be the Coalition. In article 3 we looked at the current sitting member for REID (NSW) in Craig Laundy to retain his seat in what I call ‘Sophomore Surge’. At the time he was great value at $1.53 but now the market has readjusted to a more accurate price of $1.10 at Sportsbet. I also believe that Chris Pyne will retain STURT (SA) and he has remained steady at $1.15. We advised combining the two in an all-up, but $1.76 vs $1.26 is a big difference and if you haven’t hopped on now, then the market is well found at the $1.26.
In Article 4 I discussed the Sophomore Surge – where first time seat winners work hard and often retain their seat at their first time of defending it. Here I tipped LUCY WICKS (ROBERTSON – NSW) @ $1.60 and is now $1.22 with Sportsbet, BRETT WHITELY (BRADDON – TAS) $1.50 into $1.35, SARAH HENDERSON (CORANGAMITE – VIC) @ $1.15 into $1.09 now, MICHAEL SUKKAR (DEAKIN – VIC) $1.35 into $1.20, and a nice little roughie – LUKE HOWARTH (PETRIE – QLD) who was $3.75 at the time of advice, is now a best priced $3.0.
Article 5 we discussed the Independent Factor, we discussed the NSW seats of SYDNEY and GRAYNDLER, both are into completely unbackable odds now, but maybe $1.25 about Albo to retain his seat was stealing money.
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Article 6 – All my selections – at incredibly good odds for two-horse wars – have been crunched. In MAYO (SA) the Nick Xenophon team have been hammered from $1.90 into $1.50 since time of tipping, whilst in GREY (SA) has dropped from $4 into $3 best available now on the Oddschecker grids for Team NX in that seat. The Xenopohon candidate in the Labor stronghold of PORT ADELAIDE (SA) has been slashed from $11 into $6 currently available with Sportsbet. KINGSTON (SA) there was $9 available for the Xenophon juggernaut candidate Damian Carey, the best you can get now is $5.50. There has been plenty of action on the roughies in South Australia whom I give a very decent shake at good odds on Saturday.
In my article post the Brexit shake-up, we turned our attention to Victoria, where Labor are in all sorts of disarray. I tipped McEWEN(VIC) to produce an upset expecting LIBERAL candidate Chris Jermyn to give this a real shake at $8.50 which was best by Sportsbet, he is now into $5.50. He is still very good value in what should be a tight race. The COALITION still look great odds via Julia Banks in CHISHOLM (VIC), at the time of advice she was a best priced $3.30, $3.10 is still available and she will give Labor candidate Stef Perri a real run for her money.
My biggest roughie of the whole election is in ISAACS (VIC) where I wrote:
• Isaacs (3.9% margin, $16.00 Sportsbet) – the sitting Labor MP Mark Dreyfus is a smart guy and good Shadow Minister, but he lives well outside his seat and tends to take it for granted. The Liberal candidate Gerry Spencer is a very strong local. Got to love $16.00 in a two-horse race.
$16 still available with Sportsbet, I think it is worth a flutter!!!!
My last article was titled ‘Long Shot Louie’ – we have found plenty of value so far in what can be traditionally a feast of odds-on shots.
I have 3 more to go out with as mentioned in the article the other day:
BARTON (NSW) – side with the COALITION here, $8.50 still available.
PAGE (NSW) – stick with Kevin Hogan of the COALITION – tasty at $2.60 with Sportsbet.
GRIFFITH (QLD) – Tipping an upset in Rudd’s old seat, COALITION @ $4.0 super value with Sportsbet.
All in all it is going to be a big day in Australian politics. Amazing to see how many selections above have continued to ‘Shorten’. Hard to see anything other than a Coalition win and whilst I don’t expect the same controversy when they shake hands on Saturday night as my greeting incumbent John Howard back in the day, I expect to see Malcolm Turnbull to be Prime Minister come Sunday morning when we get up for our coffee and paper.
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