Bookmakers have increased Trump's implied chance of winning significantly overnight.
- Donald Trump has been cut to as short as 23/20, and a best price of 6/4 (40% chance) to win the US election.
- Joe Biden's odds have drifted from 8/15 to 8/13 in places, meaning his implied chance has fallen by more than 3% according to bookmakers.
- Republicans are shortening across the board in swing states, notably closing the gap in Pennsylvania and Michigan.
2020 US election odds: Bookmakers slash Trump's odds on Election Day
America went to sleep knowing Joe Biden was the bookies' favourite to win the 2020 US election, that hasn't changed, but the gap between Donald Trump and Biden has been severely narrowed overnight.
Yesterday, Joe Biden's 2020 US election odds sat at 8/15, and implied he had a 65.2% chance of winning the 2020 election. That percentage has now dropped to 61.9% chance with his price drifting to 8/13 in places.
Donald Trump will likely wake up with a spring in his step as more and more people think he could stay for another term. Trump's odds on Monday implied he had just a 34.8% chance of winning the 2020 election. However, his current odds of 6/4 imply he's got 40% chance.
In 2016, the sportsbooks only gave Donald Trump a 20% chance of winning on the day before Election Day.
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2020 Presidential Election Odds and Latest Betting
| Best Odds | Implied % Chance | % of money staked in last 4 hours | % of number of bets in last 4 hours | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Biden | 8/13 | 61.9% | 41% | 33% |
| Donald Trump | 6/4 | 40% | 58% | 64% |
In the last four hours we've seen significant support for Donald Trump on our US election market, both in terms of stakes and individual bets. In that period, 58% of money staked has been for Donald Trump, while he's also accrued 64% of the bets placed on the market.
This is a clear change in the pattern of betting activity as we arrive at Election Day, compared to the past weeks and months.
Despite accounting for 63% of the bets placed in October, Donald Trump only accounted for 39% of money actually wagered on the election. In fact, the five biggest bets placed via Oddschecker in October were all on Joe Biden winning.
The 2020 US election has already become the biggest betting market on the Betfair Exchange, overtaking the 2016 election, with more than £300million now matched on the outcome.
You can watch our full US election preview, sponsored by Betfair Exchange, on our YouTube channel. We were joined by two of the country's top political betting analysts to discuss the key battles.
US election swing states: Latest odds on Election Day
The general trend in the swing states matches the main US election market this morning, in that the Republicans are shortening almost across the board.
While the Republicans were already favourites in the likes of Florida, Georgia and Texas, they've strengthened their position in those markets significantly this morning. Some commentators had described Texas as 'in play' as far as the betting market was concerned, but the Republicans have now been cut to as short as 1/4 to win that state.
"I would put everything down to Pennsylvania."
— oddschecker (@oddschecker) November 1, 2020
@paulmotty emphasises the three most important states for Joe Biden.#Election2020 w/ @BetfairExchange
Watch the full feature length preview: https://t.co/6x9pAJaFPR pic.twitter.com/U7KRhQ268z
North Carolina is another where the Republicans have seen their odds tumble over the past couple of days. As we enter Election Day, they're now as short as 8/11, having sat around the even money mark for the previous week.
Pennsylvania is regarded by many experts to be the most crucial state for Joe Biden to win, and while the Democrats have been favourites in that market for a while, their position has weakened. The Republicans have been cut to as short as 13/10 this morning, with the Democrats drifting to 11/20 in places.
You can compare odds, bet and follow all the latest odds movements on every state in our US politics section.
Are we seeing a repeat of 2016?
Oddschecker's Head of US Marketing, Sam Eaton, said: "The 2020 election is following a very similar betting pattern to the one we witnessed back in 2016. The closer we got to Election Day, the more money came for Donald Trump."
"A lot of part-time gamblers will opt to wager on the election today, and naturally given the bigger returns on Trump, they will likely side with the current President".
"The fact that we have seen a 6.6% swing in under 12 hours is remarkable at this stage of the contest given how much money has already been laid down."
