England’s 2-0 win over Switzerland meant that they were able to maintain their 100% record in Group E after eight games and have an unassailable nine point lead over the Swiss with just the two games remaining. As a result, there is a possibility that Hodgson could give some of his squad players a start here and with the trip to Lithuania only two days after this game it is unclear what sort of side he’ll pick, but the squad remains close to full-strength. Estonia, meanwhile, have picked up 10 points from eight games to leave them fourth in Group B but still with an outside chance of qualification as they trail Switzerland by five points and Slovenia in third by just two points.
England’s home record in qualifiers since 2008 is an impressive W15-D3-L0 and they’ve won the last eight of these by more than one goal with six clean sheets. We currently have England at 12th in our rankings with a grading of 160.3 points while Estonia are 106th on 122.4 points. England have won their last four home qualifiers against sides graded between 117 and 127, scoring 16 goals and conceding just once as they won each game by at least three goals . Furthermore, home sides graded between 155 and 165 have won 13 of their 14 home Euro qualifiers against sides graded between 117 and 127 since the Euro 2008 qualifiers with 12 clean sheets in these matches and eight wins by more than one goal.
Despite being held by a 0-0 draw at San Marino, Estonia have had a decent qualifying campaign so far with a 3-0 away defeat against Switzerland their only loss by more than one goal. However, that draw at San Marino and a win over Andorra are the only two away qualifiers (out of nine) they’ve avoided defeat in since 2012. They failed to score in six of these seven defeats, with five by more than one goal, as they managed just two goals in total, failing to find the net in their last five. In all matches, they’ve lost 12 of their last 14 games against top-30 ranked sides (all since June 2011) with 11 defeats to nil and 11 by more than one goal. Narrowing this to away matches then they’ve lost six of eight games by at least three clear goals.
England are as short as 3/19 to win here, with only 8/13 available on the win to nil. However, they should win comfortably here and backing them -2 on the Asian Handicap looks a good way to approach this one.
Though Wayne Rooney has struggled to find the net for Man Utd, he’s scored in England’s last seven Euro qualifiers, breaking Bobby Charlton’s goal-scoring record in the process, and is unsurprisingly the shortest price in the Anytime Goalscorer market at 4/5. However, after his impressive showing up front for Arsenal in their 3-0 win over Rooney’s United at the weekend, there have been calls for Roy Hodgson to follow Wenger’s lead and give Walcott a chance up front.
Walcott didn’t play against Switzerland but netted twice against San Marino in his last England appearance when coming off the bench after 67 minutes and has scored 12 goals in the last 14 matches he’s started for Arsenal, making 11/10 for him to score anytime look like value if he does start and 6/1 for him to score two or more may also be worth a punt.