Despite losing against Bosnia, Wales were celebrating at the final whistle as Cyprus’s win in Israel meant they qualified for a major tournament finals for the first time in 57 years. Andorra, meanwhile, have lost all nine of their qualifiers so far with a goal difference of -30, meaning this game is likely to be something of a lap of honour for the Welsh in front of their home fans.
Despite Wales impressing in this Euro qualification campaign, their home form has been far from imperious as they’ve won two and drawn two, with both of those wins by just the one goal. However, the lowest ranked side that they’ve played so far according to our gradings is 112th Cyprus, whereas we have Andorra at 209th in the world, with only San Marino ranked lower in all the qualifying groups.
Andorra have lost 66 of their last 67 matches and all of their 32 away matches since September 2003. Furthermore, they scored only once in those 32 games (in their last away match, at Lithuania) as they conceded an average of 5.46 goals per games, with 30 Loss/Loss (HT/FT) doubles and 25 defeats by at least four clear goals.
We have Wales ranked significantly lower than FIFA do at 51st in the world but narrowing Andorra’s previous 32 away game sample to matches where they were at teams we had ranked 25th-75th we are left with 16 games, all of which they lost by at least three goals, with 14 by four or more, 13 by five-plus and eight by at least seven clear strikes.
With that in mind backing Wales to cover the -3 handicap looks the best play here.
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