One goal could be enough to win this top-of-the-table clash at Turf Moor but the high probability of a low-scoring outcome is no secret and there’s little value in pursuing that angle in either the over/under or correct score markets. Instead, back Brighton draw no bet at 23/20.
Shot data suggests the Seagulls should be slight favourites and a shade of odds-on in this market, although it shouldn’t be taken as a definitive assessment. Burnley have, and will probably continue to, out-perform normal conversion rates due to their continuity and experience of the Championship course and distance, not to mention the quality of Andre Gray in attack.
Keeping Gray quiet is obviously a high priority for Chris Hughton but he will be confident that he can rely on the division’s second-best defence in terms of shots conceded. Curiously, the team that has conceded the fewest shots, Reading, were comfortable 2-1 winners at Turf Moor back in September, which was Burnley’s last defeat.
Since then, the Clarets have gone seven unbeaten, winning five, but it’s a sequence littered with opposition managers on the brink. Gary Bowyer, Chris Powell and Kit Symons have all been sacked after losing to the Lancashire club, while Rotherham were managerless when the run began. The other win was against second-from-bottom Bolton.
So it’s not inconceivable that Burnley could be caught out by a step up in quality, they’re simply not in the habit of playing top-half opposition. And until they are tested by a decent team in their pomp, it’s possible that some frailties remain uncovered. However, if Sean Dyche’s men manage to pull off a convincing win here, then expectations will be suitably revised.
Brighton remain unbeaten after 16 matches, which is largely due to an incredible record for netting the first goal. The Seagulls have broken the deadlock 11 times and three goalless draws on top of that can be counted as evidence of how serious they take that record.
For more information about Mike Holden’s shot-based ratings system, follow this link.