It’s not a good time to be a Newcastle fan right now after last week’s hammering at Crystal Palace not only dropped them back into the bottom three but also saw Sunderland leap above them. After a few encouraging games for Steve McClaren’s side the last couple of matches have been miserable as they’ve seen Leicester and Palace hit eight past them.
In contrast, Liverpool look to have turned a corner and now have their sight set on the top of the table. The win over Swansea might not have been the most convincing display but the demolitions of Man City and Chelsea in their last two away games certainly showed their full potential, as did a resounding midweek success over Southampton in the League Cup. That new found attacking ability leads us to our first potential bet as three of their last four matches have had at least three goals and while they’ve conceded in nine of their last 11 games Jurgen Klopp has got them playing with a freedom that means they can outscore opponents.
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Five of Newcastle’s seven home matches this season have had at least three goals and while they’ve already failed to score in as many home games this term as in the whole of 2014/15 (three) their defence is such that the ‘overs’ may still land. Furthermore, 10 of their last 14 home games against top-half teams have had at least three goals while nine of Liverpool’s last 12 trips to bottom-six sides have had four or more strikes.
With regards to the match outcome, Liverpool’s price of 4/6 reflects their recent form and the Toon’s struggles. However, they’ve won just three of their last 12 on the road and Newcastle have avoided defeat at home against the likes of Southampton and Chelsea this season while they’ve got an excellent recent record here against Liverpool – W3-D1-L1 since 2010/11 – so don’t be surprised if some of their players show a bit more commitment this week in front of the Sky TV cameras.
Despite that we couldn’t back Newcastle here and we’ll stick with the ‘overs’ in a match where we expect both to score and possibly both more than once in a fixture that has traditionally promised plenty of entertainment.
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