Mike Holden picks out the shrewdest bets from Tuesday's Football League action.
Brighton v Sheffield Wednesday
Only Hull and Middlesbrough boast a better shot ratio than Carlos Carvalhal’s men over the past 24 matches, so they deserve a bit more respect than a dismissive 7/2 quote on the back of a 1-0 home defeat to Rotherham. The result against the Millers was a disappointment, but nothing like as embarrassing as the markets are making out and they did have a legitimate goal disallowed.
There’s nothing particularly anti-Brighton about this stance, just a recognition that these two teams (at least when Forestieri is available for the Owls) probably couldn’t be more equal. Over the same 24-match sample, they’ve both taken 39 points and Wednesday’s shot ratio (56.8 per cent) is superior by around five per cent.
The two teams played out a goalless draw in the reverse fixture at Hillsborough and considering how Wednesday’s last six away games have produced just eight goals in total, another war of attrition could be on the cards. As such, there’s value in the 10/1 available on Sheffield Wednesday to win 1-0. The last four meetings between these two clubs have produced just two goals.
Shrewsbury v Coventry
Like the rest of us, Tony Mowbray is at a loss to explain a run of six defeats in eight matches considering his Coventry side lost only four of the first 26, but the run has already reached freakish proportions and can’t go on forever. Goal difference is a more accurate indicator of relative strength than league position and only Wigan can better the Sky Blues’ figure of +18.
Indeed, Coventry’s last two victories have been 5-0 and 6-0, so you fear for the team that cops for all the frustration of three defeats the past ten days. Shrews are currently five unbeaten, their best run of the campaign but they are bottom of my 16-match ratings and a bet on Coventry to clear the -1 handicap is also advised.