Oldham v Walsall

From a shot data perspective, there’s virtually nothing to separate Oldham and Walsall over the past 24 matches. Over the past 16, the Latics are clearly superior. So let’s pursue a couple of angles that best capitalise on this disparity with the market, starting with a bet on John Sheridan’s men to clear the -1 handicap at 6/1.

With both teams chasing coveted positions at different ends of the table, it’s a game that ought to produce further goals once the deadlock has been broken. But whereas Oldham have a very realistic chance of escaping the drop, Walsall might be dining on false hope in their pursuit of second-placed Burton, who they can overtake if they win their two games in hand.

However, the Saddlers were lacklustre against over-rated Sheffield United last weekend and their Lancashire hosts have developed the habit of keeping clean sheets - four in the last five matches - bearing which in mind, it’s difficult to resist the tasty prices about the Oldham 2-0 and Oldham 3-0 correct scores, chalked up at 14/1 and 40/1 respectively.
Oldham -1 on the handicap - 1pt @ 6/1
Oldham to win 2-0 - 0.5pts @ 14/1
Oldham to win 3-0 - 0.5pts @ 40/1

Dagenham v Portsmouth

From little victories confidence can grow, and John Still will be hoping that’s the case for Dagenham. They returned to action with a 2-1 win over Morecambe in midweek, following a 17-day break during which they came to terms with the prospect of playing non-league football next season, yet determined to make a decent fist of what remains.

As such, they deserved to be chanced at 13/2 for the visit of jittery Portsmouth. A humbling defeat such as this would be entirely in-keeping with Pompey’s odd season. Despite working with the biggest budget in the division, the Hampshire club have never really found their rhythm, tripping up against modest opposition at regular intervals.

Victory at Victoria Road would be the first time that Paul Cook’s men have won three successive league games but four previous opportunities have resulted in two draws and two defeats, so the value rests with them failing to buck the trend. My 16-match ratings make Pompey no bigger than 11/10 for this game. The shot data puts a Daggers win at around 3/1.
Dagenham to win - 1pt @ 13/2

Northampton v Bristol Rovers

The champagne was put back on ice at Sixfields last weekend as Northampton fluffed their lines against Notts County, although results elsewhere meant they wouldn’t have been promoted anyway. However, with their passage to League One guaranteed should they dispatch third-placed Bristol Rovers, expect the Cobblers to get it right second time around.

Given the level of certainty that Chris Wilder’s men will be going up as champions, the market reckons Rovers have all the incentive but their position - clinging on to an automatic spot by goal difference, with Plymouth and Accrington breathing down their necks - surely means that are more likely to be anxious and underperform.

Northampton, regardless of how big their margin for error, will just want to get the job done, here in front of their own fans. Given what’s at stake, there’s a fair chance that Darrell Clarke’s men will go for broke in search of an equaliser if they fall behind, so backing Northampton -1 on the handicap is the call.
Northampton -1 on the handicap - 1pt @ 4/1