Leicester’s title hopes took a hit last week but they are still 1.5 favourites and five points is useful buffer with games running out. They probably couldn’t pick a better opponent either, with Swansea all but safe even after a 3-0 loss at Newcastle last weekend.
The Foxes are unbeaten at home for 13 games and Arsenal are the only team to win here in their last 20. The big question though is how they will handle the pressure, particularly with Jamie Vardy suspended and Spurs playing so well. Vardy has started every game this season but last term they lost half the 12 matches he was out of the starting XI while scoring only 10 goals. However, they weren’t exactly pulling up any trees with him at that time so we shouldn’t read too much into that but while Leo Ulloa is a capable replacement his introduction is likely to see a change of approach.
Swansea had scored in seven straight away games prior to their defeat at St James’ Park, and they’ve netted in 13 of 15 home or away. Jefferson Montero is starting to show signs of life after hibernating on the bench for most of the winter while Gylfi Sigurdsson has virtually saved the Swans season having scored in nine of 15 games since the turn of the year. With Andre Ayew and Alberto Paloschi also offering an attacking threat they certainly look sharper than for much of the campaign. Seven of Swansea’s last eight away games have had at least three goals with both teams scoring in the same amount. Moreover, both teams have scored, and there have been at least three goals, in seven of their eight trips to current top-half teams this term.
The Swans relative lack of motivation might be a concern but with a fairly new manager and changes likely in the summer after a disappointing campaign they should be ready to give this a go. Leicester, meanwhile, will have to adapt without Vardy’s pace to give them a quick out ball and a threat on the break. The worry is their lack of firepower, with their defence being the main reason they’ve won so many matches in the second half of the campaign, and they’ve won just one of their last six when conceding.
Leicester’s defence has barely committed an error all season but as Liverpool fans know pressure can affect even the best of players. With Swansea likely to come and play we fancy goals and given Leicester should see this as a must win game with a trip to Old Trafford next Over 2.5 Goals looks a good price at 2.2.
Click here to find out more about Football Form Labs