The last time Spurs were shorter than 1.30 to win a Premier League match was when they hosted Sunderland on the final day of the 2012/13 season when Gareth Bale signed off his incredible season with the solitary goal in a 1-0 victory. We’ve got 10 matches in our database where Spurs were shorter than 1.3 and the North London club have an average looking W5-D2-L3 record in those matches. At the time of writing, Spurs are five points behind Leicester as both race for their maiden Premier League trophies but it’s Spurs who are in the better form of the two.
Pochettino’s side have taken 13 points form their last five games as they’ve showed no signs of bottling this great opportunity. The only time they’ve failed to win was in a 1-1 draw at Anfield as they’ve dispatched Villa, Bournemouth, Man Utd and Stoke without conceding. All four victories were by two clear goals. In complete contrast, the wheels have come off West Brom’s season since their Premier League status next season was confirmed a while back. They’ve picked up just one point from their last five which has included a brace of pitiful 1-0 home defeats to Watford and struggling Norwich. Only relegated Villa have scored fewer than West Brom’s 31 this season as they’ve struck more than once in just two of 17 on the road – oddly it was at Liverpool and Leicester that they netted twice.
Over the past five seasons, West Brom have gone W2-D3-L17 travelling to top-four finishers which suggests Spurs’ short-looking win price is about right here. Interestingly, they’ve struggled to keep their opponents out for any length of time as they’ve suffered 14 L/L HT/FT doubles while they’ve been beaten to nil on 13 occasions.
Readers interested in Spurs’ opening price should note that top-four finishers have gone W85-D11-L4 hosting teams that have finished 13th-17th (strugglers that have stayed up) in the past five Premier League seasons recording W/Ws in 62% of the matches.
Spurs have won both of their last two games at the Lane 3-0 though it’s a prohibitive looking 7.5 for another here. We tipped up Kane at 5.0 to open the scoring against Stoke and he duly delivered for followers. The England forward is 3.75 to score first here and generally as short as 1.7 to score anytime. Both prices look a little short to get stuck into so we’ll stick with the 1.83 on Spurs to win to nil as our standout choice and the W/W at 1.75 as our next best.
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