On average, since the inception of the 38-game Premier League era, 26 goals would be enough to win you the Golden Boot. Last season 25 was enough for Tottenham striker Harry Kane, although had Sergio Aguero’s season not been hampered by injury that would have been a different story. The Argentine was level with Leicester hero Jamie Vardy, one behind Kane on 24.
The bookies fancy these three to challenge again this season with Aguero the favourite at 7/2, Kane best-price 7/1 (as short as 5/1 elsewhere) and Vardy in the thick of it at 18/1. The Man City striker has a considerably better minutes per goal record scoring once every 98.9 minutes last season, compared to Kane’s 134.7 and Vardy’s 130.8. If Aguero manages to stay fit he’ll be tough to beat but having only made 29 league appearances last campaign it’s a big if. Aside from being natural goal scorers, Kane and Vardy have brilliant fitness records, featuring in 38 and 36 Premier League games last season respectively.
At 9/1, Premier League new-boy Zlatan Ibrahimovic is the third-favourite to be the league’s top goal scorer in his first season. The Swede managed 38 goals in Ligue 1 last year in just 31 appearances. At 67.2 minutes per goal, he has a considerably better strike rate than any Premier League player last season. Having said that, we don’t know how he will fare in a more competitive league and in the last ten years no one has won the Golden Boot in their first season in the Premier League.
Everton striker Romelu Lukaku has been linked with various moves away from Goodison Park this summer but goes into the season at the club he scored 18 goals in 37 games for last season. Like Kane and Vardy, his fitness record suggests he should feature in most of Everton’s games and he is prices up at 13/1 by bookmakers. However, it is worth noting that the Belgian has never been the most prolific goalscorer, managing a personal best 18 goals in a Premier League campaign. Having said that he is only 23...
Last but not least, we have a wildcard in Daniel Sturridge. As short as 16/1 but best-price 25/1, this tells you all you need to know about the Liverpool striker. His eight goals last season came at a better rate than his competitors but he only managed 11 starts due to a second consecutive injury-plagued season. He’s made just 26 league appearances in the past two seasons and will need to play a more substantial role if he is to contend this campaign.