Match result + over/under 4.5 goals

Leverkusen are seriously starting to click under Peter Bosz. Their excellent victory at Gladbach on Saturday saw them move into the top four, and looking at the way they’re knocking the ball about with swagger, I think they’re going to be a very, very hard side to beat.

Wolfsburg were outclassed by Dortmund on Saturday, and while they didn’t disgrace themselves, I do fear their lack of cutting edge will ultimately cost the time-and-time again against the league’s better sides – and Leverkusen certainly fall under that category.

In the absence of nine-goal Kevin Volland, Leverkusen have not only survived but prospered, with the brilliant Kai Havertz scoring four in his last two playing as a False Nine.

That said, this does look the sort of fixture where Havertz could be frustrated. Wolfsburg are a miserly side who have conceded only 33 goals this campaign, and the way they shackled Erling Haaland over the weekend shows how they’re able to keep danger men quiet – it’s the others, however, that they need to look out for.

My first tip is for Leverkusen to win and under 4.5 goals to be scored. Wolfsburg don’t concede many, but they’re also fairly placid going forward, while 52-goal Leverkusen have looked mightily threatening since football’s resumption.

Only eight of the 54 collective games that the two sides have played this season have seen over 4.5 goals, so while a Leverkusen win looks a solid bet, under 4.5 goals adds nice value on top of it.

Leverkusen + under 4.5 - 1pt @ 13/11

First Goalscorer

I’m also going to tentatively back Karim Bellarabi to score first – but as an each-way punt to ensure profit if he finds the net at any time.

Like against Dortmund, Wolfsburg will do what they do pretty well and concentrate on stopping the opposition danger man – in this case Havertz.

However, Dortmund showed that overlapping wide men—in their case Raphael Guerreiro and Achraf Hakimi—can cause them real problems, and the experienced Bellarabi is certainly a player who can cause damage from those areas.

The 30-year-old scored first in Leverkusen’s last game against Wolfsburg, and I fancy he’ll find the net again on Tuesday.

Bellarabi - 0.5pts e/w @ 8/1