The experts at WhoScored have picked out a data-driven 33/1 #WhatOddsPaddy bet for Tottenham vs Man City.
- Other than Southampton, Son Heung-min has scored more goals against City (5) than any of the other English opposition he has faced in his career.
- Pierre-Emile Hojbjerg has three yellow cards and a sending off in six previous starts against City.
- Since the beginning of last season, Gabriel Jesus averages more shots on target per 90 (2.4) on the road than any other player (10+ apps) in the Premier League.
Premier League action returns with a bang this weekend with Jose Mourinho's Tottenham hosting Pep Guardiola's Manchester City in Saturday's big match-up.
Tottenham remarkably have a five-point advantage over City and can go top of the Premier League with a win, albeit potentially for just over 24 hours.
Mourinho didn't look to antagonise his great rival during his time as Manchester United manager, aware the Red Devils were not on City's level, but that may now change given Tottenham's start.
In the build-up to Saturday's blockbuster encounter, we have teamed up with Paddy Power to create the ultimate match-day bet. Using our stats-rich database we have produced a juicy 33/1 bet to sink your teeth into!
Tottenham vs Man City
Son Heung-Min anytime scorer
With eight goals in as many league games for Tottenham this season, it might seem like we are stating the obvious in tipping Son Heung-Min as an anytime scorer but against City there is further reason to be confident. Simply put, against only Southampton has Son scored more goals against than City (5) of all English opposition he has faced in his career.
Mourinho will have no concerns conceding the bulk of possession to City, knowing full well he has the players capable of hurting Guardiola's side on the counter attack. In this fixture last season Tottenham only had 33% of the possession but ran out 2-0 winners. Speed is obviously key to a successful counter attack but so is good, sharp decision-making. With Son leading the counter, they have that in abundance. He is in the form of his life to continue his fine record against City.
Pierre-Emile Hojbjerg to be booked
Pierre-Emile Hojbjerg has already proven an astute signing for Tottenham, adding reliability and a robustness to Mourinho's midfield. They were two areas Tottenham lacked last season and he will be key to their chances of withstanding City's pressure. And there will be a lot of it. Hojbjerg is certainly in the right form to do just that but it's a big ask over 90 minutes up against City's tricky technicians.
With 3 tackles pg in the Premier League, Hojbjerg is getting his work done in midfield but his tackle success rate is just 66.7%. Not bad by any means but also suggests there are times when he gets things wrong. Further backed-up by a return of 1.8 fouls pg and a record of three yellow cards and a sending off in six previous starts against City.
Gabriel Jesus 2+ shots on target
With Sergio Aguero still on the mend, Gabriel Jesus is expected to lead the line once again for Manchester City after returning for Pep Guardiola's side before the international break. Getting Jesus on the pitch has so far proved problematic this season but he has nevertheless scored in all three appearances.
Firing on all cylinders in front of goal, Tottenham will have to pay closer attention to Aguero's understudy. In truth, however, even when Jesus goes off the boil he generally still carves out an opening, arguably better than most away from home. In fact, since the beginning of last season Jesus averages more shots on target per 90 (2.4) on the road than any other player (10+ apps) in the Premier League. Even for totals, Jesus is only one shy of Mo Salah and Raheem Sterling (both 31 shots on target), despite featuring in 500 fewer minutes than both.
Man City 5+ corners
It will be of no surprise to learn Manchester City average more possession (59%) than any other side in the Premier League and even more in away matches (59.7%). Moreover, only Liverpool have a greater proportion of their touches in the opposition third (34%) than City (33%). In other words, City will expect to camp themselves in Tottenham's half and look to suffocate them into submission. Whether that produces the end result of a goal or a win is to be determined but it would be a huge surprise if City do not control possession.
Dictating the flow of matches has enabled City to fire off more shots pg away from home than any other Premier League side this season (16.8). Few sides are capable of withstanding the pressure and you will often find it leads to a lot of corners. Getting clear however you can. It's therefore not surprising City have won more corners than any other side away from home in the Premier League since the beginning of last season, by at least 33 - an average of 7.5 pg. Moreover, they won 19 corners across both league meetings with Tottenham in 19/20.
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