Man City v Burnley prediction & betting tips brought to you by football expert Tom Love.
- Manchester City have won their last six home games against Burnley.
- Manchester City have kept a clean sheet in five of their last six home games against Burnley.
- Manchester City have conceded just four goals in their last eleven games in all competitions.
- Manchester City have seen their last six league games all go under 2.5 goals.
- Four of Burnley’s five defeats this season have seen under 3.5 goals.
The standalone 3pm Saturday fixture looks like a fairly routine one for Manchester City as they host a Burnley side who got their first win of the season last week against Crystal Palace. It will be a much tougher test for Sean Dyche’s side here though, they have a terrible record at the Etihad in the past few years and rarely even trouble the scoresheet never mind grabbing a win.
City racked up yet another clean sheet in Greece midweek, Pep Guardiola has clearly focused the majority of his attention on beefing up the back line and it has bared fruit, they’ve conceded just four goals in their last eleven games. That’s one of the best defensive runs in Europe and Burnley have failed to convince in forward areas.
Where is the value?
The good news for Clarets’ fans is that James Tarkowski and Ben Mee are back as a partnership. Their clean sheet record with the duo together is excellent and I do think the visitors will try and frustrate their hosts. Nevertheless, the extra quality should be with City and I like the 23/20 about them to win a game featuring fewer than four goals.
One player card bet that looks a bit too good to ignore is Kyle Walker at a bulbous 17/2. Walker was rested midweek and should come back in at right-back here. He has picked up two cautions already this season and ranks fourth for fouls committed per game in this city team. He will be up against Burnley’s most skilful player in Dwight McNeil who draws the second-most fouls of all Burnley players. I’d make Walker more of a 5/1 shot here so 17/2 looks a nice bit of value.