20:00 Monday

Brighton vs Crystal Palace Stats

  • Brighton have kept 5 clean sheets in their last 6 league games.
  • Brighton have seen under 3.5 goals in 75% of league games.
  • Crystal Palace have lost 4 of their last 6 league games.

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Betting Tip: Brighton to Win and Under 3.5 Goals

These two have some historic beef dating back to the 1970’s and their rivalry has caught fire again in the last decade after some big play off games in the championship. Both are now established premier league clubs and should be safe yet again this season.

Anyone who takes a keen interest into performance data and expected goals will understand why Brighton are so short here. If you only look at home/away form you’d be scoffing at the 3/4 quotes on the hosts here given their dearth of wins at the Amex this season. But the truth is bookmakers price these markets up chiefly on the underlying data and Brighton rank as a top 6 side on xG ratio.

The Seagulls have been superb defensively, allowing very few opportunities and their decision to get rid of Matt Ryan and upgrade Robert Sanchez to first choice goalkeeper has been fully vindicated. They’ve now kept 5 clean sheets in 6 games and aren’t conceding cheap goals from areas they shouldn’t concede from. 

The area where they have struggled is being clinical at the top of the pitch. They create plenty and dominate a lot of games but just lack that goalscoring predator. Their process is starting to get results now and they’re on an upward curve.

Palace always seem to do enough under Roy Hodgson, a couple of wins here and there keeps them on the straight and narrow but they’ve looked pretty devoid of ideas of late without Wilf Zaha. They’ll also defend pretty well and it could make this a tight affair. 

Brighton will start getting results if their process keeps up and this looks a presentable one against a poor away side. I’ll take them to win and under 3.5 goals here at 6/5.

Betting Tip: Joel Veltman to be carded 

Palace do still have a threat in Eberechi Eze on the left hand side. He has the ball carrying ability to offset the loss of Zaha to some degree and draws plenty of fouls. Joel Veltman is likely to be the right back for the hosts and at 5/1 the Dutchman looks a touch big for a card in this ‘derby’ that usually sees a few cards. He’s picked up 5 cards this season for club and country.

Brighton vs Crystal Palace Odds

Brighton have turned the corner in recent weeks and have turned good performances into wins and because of this the bookies have put them odds-on favourites to win the 'M23' derby, with best odds of 8/11.

Where is the value?

  Brighton Draw Crystal Palace
Best Odds 8/11 12/5 23/5

Brighton to win and Under 3.5 Goals - 1pt @ 6/5
Joel Veltman to be Carded - 1pt @ 5/1