19:15 Wednesday

Luton vs Chelsea Stats

  • There have been under 2.5 goals scored in five of Chelsea's last six games in the FA Cup.
  • Luton have won five of their last six Championship games.
  • Chelsea have seen under 3.5 goals in 76% of their league games.

Luton vs Chelsea

Betting Tip: Under 2.5 Goals

Chelsea go from Wembley to Kenilworth Road as they face a potential banana skin in the form of high flying Championship side Luton Town as they aim to reach the quarter-finals of the FA Cup. 

Considering the Blues went all the way to penalties after playing 120 minutes on Sunday afternoon there could be some understandable fatigue in the camp which could play into the hands of the hosts who have had an excellent campaign so far under the enigmatic Nathan Jones. Jones had great success in his first spell in Bedfordshire and is back at the club after an unfortunate stint at Stoke City where he was on the wrong end of some results despite a decent underlying process. With hindsight perhaps the Potters were wrong to cut ties with the all-action Welshman. 

He has seen his Hatters side win five of their last six and it’s to their credit that they’re punching up their with the likes of Middlesbrough, Nottingham Forest and West Brom for a playoff berth. Their data-led recruitment drive has worked wonders and plenty of clubs could learn from the way that Luton operates in the transfer window.

It promises to be a hostile environment for Chelsea, perhaps something this group have rarely encountered and with the visitors at such skinny quotes of 1/3 in places, it’s hard to see them representing any value. Even if Thomas Tuchel mixes up his starting XI the confidence could be dented from that dramatic defeat at the weekend, it will be interesting to see if Kepa starts in goal here as he has done in the cup this season.

Chelsea are strong defensively though and rarely concede more than one goal but I have faith in the Hatters being able to come here with a game plan to try to stifle Chelsea too and that could lead to a tight and low scoring encounter. Under 2.5 goals is trading at odds against and that looks a nice price to get involved with.

Under 2.5 Goals - 1pt @ 23/20